https://bigserge.substack.com/p/politics-by-other-means
Putin and those around him conceived of the Russo-Ukrainian War in existential terms from the very beginning. It is unlikely, however, that most Russians understood this. Instead, they likely viewed the war the same way Americans viewed the war in Iraq and Ukraine - as a justified military enterprise that was nevertheless merely a technocratic task for the professional military; hardly a matter of life and death for the nation. I highly doubt that any American ever believed that the fate of the nation hinged on the war in Afghanistan (Americans have not fought an existential war since 1865), and judging by the recruitment crisis plaguing the American military, it does not seem like anyone perceives a genuine foreign existential threat.
What has happened in the months since February 24 is rather remarkable. The existential war for the Russian nation has been incarnated and made real for Russian citizens. Sanctions and anti-Russian propaganda - demonizing the entire nation as “orcs” - has rallied even initially skeptical Russians behind the war, and Putin’s approval rating has soared. A core western assumption, that Russians would turn on the government, has reversed. Videos showing the torture of Russian POWs by frothing Ukrainians, of Ukrainian soldiers calling Russian mothers to mockingly tell them their sons are dead, of Russian children killed by shelling in Donetsk, have served to validate Putin’s implicit claim that Ukraine is a demon possessed state that must be exorcised with high explosives. Amidst all of this - helpfully, from the perspective of Alexander Dugin and his neophytes - American pseudo-intellectual “Blue Checks” have publicly drooled over the prospect of “decolonizing and demilitarizing” Russia, which plainly entails the dismemberment of the Russian state and the partitioning of its territory. The government of Ukraine (in now deleted tweets) publicly claimed that Russians are prone to barbarism because they are a mongrel race with Asiatic blood mixing.
Simultaneously, Putin has moved towards - and ultimately achieved - his project of formal annexation of Ukraine’s old eastern rim. This has also legally transformed the war into an existential struggle. Further Ukrainian advances in the east are now, in the eyes of the Russian state, an assault on sovereign Russian territory and an attempt to destroy the integrity of the Russian state. Recent polling shows that a supermajority of Russians support defending these new territories at any cost.
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A political consensus for higher mobilization and greater intensity has been achieved. Now all that remains is the implementation of this consensus in the material world of fist and boot, bullet and shell, blood and iron.
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Putin, very simply, could not have conducted a large scale mobilization at the onset of the war. He possessed neither a coercive mechanism nor the manifest threat to generate mass political support. Few Russians would have believed that there was some existential threat lurking in the shadow - they needed to be shown, and the west has not disappointed. Likewise, few Russians would likely have supported the obliteration of Ukrainian infrastructure and urban utilities in the opening days of the war. But now, the only vocal criticism of Putin within Russia is on the side of further escalation. The problem with Putin, from the Russian perspective, is that he has not gone far enough. In other words - mass politics have already moved ahead of the government, making mobilization and escalation politically trivial. Above all, we must remember that Clausewitz’s maxim remains true. The military situation is merely a subset of the political situation, and military mobilization is also political mobilization - a manifestation of society’s political participation in the state.
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The other is the interpretation that I have advocated, that Russia is massing for a winter escalation and offensive, and is currently engaged in a calculated trade wherein they give up space in exchange for time and Ukrainian casualties. Russia continues to retreat where positions are either operationally compromised or faced with overwhelming Ukrainian numbers, but they are very careful to extract forces out of operational danger. In Lyman, where Ukraine threatened to encircle the garrison, Russia committed mobile reserves to unblock the village and secure the withdrawal of the garrison. Ukraine’s “encirclement” evaporated, and the Ukrainian interior ministry was bizarrely compelled to tweet (and then delete) video of destroyed civilian vehicles as “proof” that the Russian forces had been annihilated.
Russia will likely continue to pull back over the coming weeks, withdrawing units intact under their artillery and air umbrella, grinding down Ukrainian heavy equipment stocks and wearing away their manpower. Meanwhile, new equipment continues to congregate in Belgorod, Zaporizhia, and Crimea. My expectation remains the same: episodic Russian withdrawal until the front stabilizes roughly at the end of October, followed by an operational pause until the ground freezes, followed by escalation and a winter offensive by Russia once they have finished amassing sufficient units.
Winter will decimate both armies, and kill thousands of civilians too.
Will we never learn from the past?
Yes, I have read some of his work, his analysis is excellent. He makes a good point that others haven’t considered. Until the United States decided to escalate and openly turn this into a NATO vs. Russia war Putin would not have had the necessary internal support for anything beyond a temporary Donbass support effort and Ukrainian neutrality.
I agree completely with his description of what the current Russia plan is; maintain a defensive position and retreat carefully when overwhelmed by superior numbers thus protecting your troops and then hit the Ukrainians heavy with artillery, air, etc. now that they have exposed themselves by coming out of their defensive positions. And it has worked surprisingly well...in just 3 days of this there were over 2,000 Ukrainian casualties. If that’s “winning” Ukraine will not be able to afford to keep “winning.”
Russia is supplementing those gains by taking advantage of Ukraine’s “all in” multiple attack fronts offensive. One Ukrainian Telegram Channel remarked that the only reason Russia was able to conduct such damaging drone attacks all the way up in Kiev last night was that Ukraine had pulled out all their air defense and moved it into Kharkov and Liman for their attacks.
Russia has just recently brought in 7 strategic bombers and are clearly planning for a strong offensive once all the pieces are in place.
I will freely confess to having Russophilic tendencies
Well, at least we got THAT out of the way.
Let’s first dispense with the silly theory that Russia wanted to “capture” Kiev.
An article of faith for all Pro-Russia Propagandists. Red Flag (pun intended).
Needless to say, the Ukrainians lost Peski. It is now in Russian hands. This is the process that is being repeated ad infinitum in the Donbas.
Ad infinitum? Russia had captured almost zero territory in Donbas in over a month and has captured almost zero since. It's virtually frozen since early July. Strike 2
Ukraine simply has no hope of success waging a successful, full scale offensive. For one thing, offensive actions are hard. It’s difficult to successfully coordinate multi-brigade action - so far in Kherson, they are struggling to concentrate more than a battalion at critical points. Russia has combined armed reserves, artillery advantages, and a tremendous edge in airpower. Ukraine cannot achieve strategic objectives - all they can do is trade the lives of their men for temporary tactical successes that can be spun into wins by their propaganda arm.Well, this last one aged like milk. Seriously, he called the Kherson Offensive a failure 3 days in? Russia's Donbas Ofensive hasn't moved in 2 months. Is that a failure? And that little skirmish ongoing skirmish up in Izium, Kupiansk, Lyman, etc? Failed? "Big Serge" predicted Ukraine was incapable of crossing the Oskil just 2 days before they did just that! As with many Putin Propagandists, Big Serge spends far too much time trying to rehabilitate his previous posts and moving the goalposts. Strike 3The failure of the Kherson counteroffensive will accelerate progress towards the two tipping points, both by degrading the Ukrainian army further, and souring westerners on continuing to support Ukraine. Winter and the ensuing economic chaos will do the rest.