Trafalgar has been proven to be the most accurate time and again. They’re closer to real than any others because they acknowledge the difficulty of reaching conservatives who don’t want to cooperate with pollsters.
Other pollsters —like Fox—ignore the hard to get conservative, likely voters
Polls to date have been using ‘regisered’ voters. .
I will refrain from an “I told you so” in 6 weeks......or....maybe not.
Much like stocks, previous performance is no indication of future success.
Oversampling of R’s by nearly 10% makes their polling highly suspect.
There is a big difference between finding a hard to find voter to poll, and oversampling by 10%. Those are not remotely the same.
Trafalgar has consistently been oversampling GOP by about 10% this cycle.
Maybe they feel that GOP turnout will be 4 point higher than their representation of the electorate and that is why, even though that has NEVER EVER happened in the past.
IN a few weeks we’ll see where the ball lands, but Trafalgar’s gross oversampling of GOP voters and women voters as well makes their polling numbers suspect.