[fr_freak]

But the conclusion that something unusual is going on at all is based on the calculation of an unusual increase in the death rate...

It's not just based on an unusual increase in the death rate. It's based on the unusual increase in death rate among people in a category which should have a much lower death rate. That is the anomaly.

For example, I want to know why so many young athletes are dropping dead on the field. In the old days, if some athlete dropped dead on the field (which did occasionally happen), people were flabbergasted, and immediately wanted to know what killed him, precisely because of the anomaly. Residents dropping dead in the nursing home isn't nearly as mysterious.

[Boogieman]

“It’s not just based on an unusual increase in the death rate. It’s based on the unusual increase in death rate among people in a category which should have a much lower death rate.”

We don’t know that they should have a much lower death rate, though, because we don’t have the data to know what their usual death rate is. We don’t even have the data to support Kirsch’s calculation of their current death rate to make a comparison to the calculation of the average death rate (which we don’t have). It’s just bad statistics and bad logic all around.