“It’s not just based on an unusual increase in the death rate. It’s based on the unusual increase in death rate among people in a category which should have a much lower death rate.”
We don’t know that they should have a much lower death rate, though, because we don’t have the data to know what their usual death rate is. We don’t even have the data to support Kirsch’s calculation of their current death rate to make a comparison to the calculation of the average death rate (which we don’t have). It’s just bad statistics and bad logic all around.