If abortion is a state by state matter then why would congress be running on state issues that belong in their state legislatures? Why would voters think abortion is a federal matter now that the Supreme Court tossed it to the states?
The haven't yet or the Democrats wouldn't get 2% of the vote
One - because they are stupid.
Two - because the Democrats have promised a law to Federalize abortion up to birth, probably as an amendment to the Civil Rights Act (to give it the appearance of constitutionality).
My own opinion has been Senate D+2 (52D, 48R) and House +10R (R221, D214), but although this result in NY is a probable one-off, we may be looking at a potential Ireland-like baby killing wave that will allow the Democrats to keep the House.