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The simple math problem is, how many years will it take to replace all the cars in the U.S. with electric vehicles (total in the U.S. rounded up / average production volume per year)?

It is 300M / 15M/year = 20 years.
= = =

Assumes EV production level stays constant; probably will increase.

Assumes each EV buyer keeps his EV 20 years. (maybe he will sell it and it stays on the road.)

Assumed that each EV will keep running for 20 years.

But it is a decent starting point for discussion.

RE: Assumes EV production level stays constant; probably will increase.

Here is where the math gets a little more fun:

If we are currently producing 1 million electric vehicles a year, and we are struggling to attain the materials to hit that number, what is the maximum number of electric vehicles we can produce without a “magic wand”?

I will be generous and say we can at best expect to TRIPLE production to 3M a year.

If we need 300M to be produced (300M / 3M/year = 100 years), that means that it will take 100 years just to replace all the vehicles on the road. Companies are already struggling to get the minerals needed for batteries.

When we try to go from 1M to 2M, it will get worse and more expensive. I can’t even image the costs and environmental impact of trying to go from 2M to 3M. If this is a reasonable assumption, then in ten years, the best we can hope to achieve in the U.S. is replacing 10% to 15% of the vehicles on the road with electric vehicles.

BTW, this does not yet discuss the ELECTRIC GRID. What energy source are we going to use to charge all these new EV’s.

It also does not discuss — HOW MUCH on average the EV’s will cost and how many percent of driving Americans can AFFORD them.

Not everybody that has a car now, will be assigned one.

Remember, you will own nothing and like it.

Further, public transit will resolve any residual problems.

The cars will be mostly for high level party functionaries....just like private air travel.

You also omitted it assumes we can generate, transmit and distribute a doubling, or more, of our current electricity production. As well as distribute at the neighborhood level, to every charging center and figure how to charge all the vehicles used by apartment & condo dwellers.

As it is now, there are thousands of fuel centers, each operating 10 or 20 gas pumps, where drivers are in/out in 5 or 10 minutes. That's not going to happen with EVs.