The protests (other than the ones over COVID masks and lockdowns) generally break down into two complaints - that the cost of goods is too high (many here live in near poverty) or that the government is corrupt, living too conspicuously well.
Each political party since Noriega was ousted tries to walk the PR line of being a friend of the lower classes while trying to conduct business in a way that satisfies the international investors. The Canal brings billions into the country’s economy but much of it falls into the hands of the bankers who, like most bankers, only care about maximizing investments.
My fear is that a true socialist will take the reins of power, as has happened in Costa Rica, where many of the gringos have fled because the socialists see gringos as somebody to punish rather than somebody to partner with.
notably, I have not seen anyone publish analysis of this but I suspect there in fact has been detailed work by the US and other governments (china, russia, ?) analyzing each country’s economic structure and balance of funds, estimating how much of what kinds of commodity prices will break it and how quickly.
given the external realities, I am not sure what a functioning and competent government could do about what is starting. I have wondered if panama’s spending binge at present is in fact a pragmatic reaction to what is considered an inevitable default regardless of how prudent the government is in the coming months/years.
the little one-hex central american countries are going to have issues.