You are ignoring the additional energy from Pro-Life women in country who are not exactly an irrelevant small number. The killing of Roe has energized them as well. So the Roe decision is mostly a toss up.
Inflation for all necessities will rule this November.
There is no energy from pro-life women. The WA senate race was a 5 pts gap before the overturn, and it ended up 23 for the D! KS, a safe R state just voted overwhelmingly to allow abortion. Pro-lifers were going to vote for our side anyways!