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Based on 2022 numbers to keep the math simple, in order to be eligible for SS you need 40 credits, at four credits per year at a minimum income of $6040 for the year. That's $60M in income, not SS taxes. Multiplied by 6.2%, that's $3745 in taxes paid in to SS. Lets say you make this bare income for 30 years, so you've paid in $11,235. At 30 years of income, the minimum SS payment is currently $950. You'll make your money back (ignoring the interest part) in less than 12 years.

But wait, in 1990 (30 years ago), minimum income for credit was $520, or $2080 a year. So the average from then till now was 30% lower than our numbers (6000-2000 / 2 = 4000/year), meaning this guy only paid in about $7500 in SS taxes, so now we're at less than eight years to balance, ignoring interest. So they only have to live to 74-75, not the 92 you calculated somehow..?

Interest is hard to calculate, not just from varying numbers in/compounding, but also because that's not interest on your account, that's what SS makes in income based on the money you gave them. What you pay in monthly is automatically adjusted when they calculate your benefits, and is related to the average wage for that year, not what SS made in interest off your money. Hard to find numbers on the bonds' interest rates, but what I can find seems to vary between one and two percent. So our guy's money earned SS less than $3000 in interest, making the eight-year return into maybe eleven years to balance out. (Assuming the income is spread evenly, that's $22/month SS taxes for 30 years at 2% comes out to $2800.)

Of course, these numbers do exclude the employer-side of SS taxes, since most people don't count those as taxes on their wages (even though ANYTHING your employer pays based on you is essentially directly a tax on your wages, as that amount is factored in to what they pay for employing you, and reduces what the company could have afforded to pay you), so these numbers are more realistically doubled, placing our break-even in the mid-80s, so not that likely, but definitely more probable than your 92-year-old dude.

Of course, these numbers do exclude the employer-side of SS taxes,

Never ignore that.

As an employer I assure you that is part of your compensation calculation along with insurance and your 401 and Workman's comp and your "half" of medicare tax and the cost of hiring someone to work all this out.

And the interest is not that hard to figure. You just take the lump sum for the year and calculate it. It is not exact but close enough.

If you want to make it very simple you can average it. I admit I did go for a young employee because the concept of someone getting their first paying job at 52 is a bit out there. So your amount would (using ten year bonds) would, on average double every 12. And then that would once again double.

Once you work in that you can see how I got my number.

Also remember that the amount is not frozen when you retire.

It still continues to be lent to the government and so it still continues to earn interest. And that is how you get to ninety two.

As you can see even your low earner would rarely empty his "account" and your high earner, poor soul, never would. Not even if he lived to be 122 which is I believe is the oldest anyone has lived in the modern era.

And of course that still does not factor in all the people who never draw because they die before they can.

Privatized savings accounts would work out much better for people.

But not for the government who would not have all that lovely money to buy votes with.