This is my understanding,:
There has been a civil war in the eastern part of Ukraine.
Once Covid died down, the civil war flared back up.
The Russian government demanded the Ukrainian irregulars stop fighting the Russian residents and their informal governments. The fighting continued. The informal governments declared their formal status, allowing them to request foreign (i.e. Russian Federation) help. The ‘help’ came in the firm of the invasion.
Bear in mind the 1990 USSR breakup originated from self-declarations such as Lithuania and Ukraine.
I wonder how the people in those areas would “declare” now? And did Lviv and Odessa “declare” their independence? Because they are getting missiles attacks every day—and they are hundreds of miles away.
The whole “civil war” premise doesn’t stand up to the least bit of scrutiny.
I will interject that the Russian invasion buffer is not present when Ukraine exists as a sovereign nation.
Russia is thus naked and subject to direct attack. The greatest readily available buffer is the Russian speaking area of Eastern Ukraine. Little as it is, it must be captured to provide at least some invasion buffer.
All of Ukraine would be best but the east will have to suffice
“The informal governments declared their formal status,”
A bunch of States tried that trick here in 1860. How’d that work out for them?
L