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To: discostu

I don’t disagree with the general thirds analysis.

It does not explain how a third party candidate suddenly became “available” to vote for.

Where are these perot candidates in every election.

perot was “allowed” in by the CPD to disrupt Republican probability of winning re-election.

Here is another useful educational point: Incumbents usually win.

In fact, that is the dominant fact of politics. You need a disruption of some kind to prevent that reality. That is why senators almost never lose their seats.

Presidential races are absolutely despised by our institutional elite who consistently want Democrats over Republicans. Perot’s main arguments were Republican arguments. You don’t see Bernie Sanders busting up the Democrats even though he probably ran along with other socialist radicals. But the elite do not give a debate stage to people who are going to break the Left voting block.

Clinton won with less than 50%. He won with an unusually low voting percentage. That happened because the elite wanted that.

In 1990, the Fed raised rates to 8.5% helping to damage the economy as the election approached.

Perot voters definitely helped elected Bill Clinton and CPD has never allowed a third party candidate onto the stage in October since then.


82 posted on 04/13/2022 9:35:26 AM PDT by lonestar67 (America is exceptional)
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To: lonestar67

It does. There’s 3rd party candidates all the time. The only thing really different about Perot is had enough cash to throw around to actually break the fog and get a somewhat serious vote count.

The CPD was just dealing with reality. Perot was popular enough they knew the debates would be thought of as a joke (they are a joke, but that’s for another day) if they didn’t include him.

Incumbents have certain advantages from being in power. Of course the two largest sources of incumbents in America are the House and State Legislatures. And they’re protected by gerrymandering. When you throw them out and only pay attention to offices that don’t have rigged voting bases incumbent advantage shrinks, still over 50% but not nearly as insane.

Clinton won with less than 50% because a strong 3rd party candidate syphoned a lot of the mushy middle. Historically sitting VPs don’t win. The middle doesn’t like allies of incumbents when the incumbent isn’t running. It’s why the party of the sitting president usually loses seats in midterms. There’s a reason Bush was the only the 2nd sitting VP to win the office in the ticket era. And both only went 1 term. Very popular outbound presidents let the VP run on “4 more years” and 4 years later the voters said “you ain’t him”.

Nobody would want me as a campaign manager. I’d tell them whether or not they were going to win, that there was little they could do about it and move on.


84 posted on 04/13/2022 9:51:22 AM PDT by discostu (like a dog being shown a card trick)
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To: lonestar67; enumerated

Alright guys, just for fun I decided to look up some of the history. Because there was a multi-month period where Perot was out we do actually have the ability to guess what would have happened if he didn’t re-enter. And here it is: Bush would have gotten his butt kicked:
https://www.pollingreport.com/hibbitts1202.htm

I will summarize the meat of it:
In June Perot 39%, Bush 31%, Clinton 25%
Perot pulls out during the convention, polls immediately after Clinton 56% Bush 34%, of course that’s right after the convention, there’s always a bounce there
Get to August they don’t say Clinton’s numbers but Bush is at 37%
September Clinton 58% Bush 37%
Perot re-enters the race Oct 1, Oct 11th polls Clinton 48%, Bush 35%, Perot 8%
10 days later Clinton 44% Bush 34% Perot 19%
Election day Clinton 43% Bush 37.5% Perot 19%

So it’s pretty clear, Perot was drawing the “no Bush” voters. Even with him out Bush couldn’t get out of the 30s. And when he came back Clinton’s numbers went through the floor.

Alright it’s been real, thanks for mostly staying polite.


89 posted on 04/13/2022 12:41:11 PM PDT by discostu (like a dog being shown a card trick)
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