[Zhang Fei]

Ukraine ping

Somewhat peripheral to Ukraine, but perhaps relevant, given that Putin is leaning on Xi to be his sugar daddy, parts supplier and armorer or, at minimum, a bigger natural resource customer.

[AdmSmith]

China's Covid lockdowns are likely costing the country at least $46 billion a month, or 3.1% of GDP, in lost economic output. That cost would double if there will be more lockdowns.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-03-29/china-lockdowns-cost-at-least-46-billion-a-month-academic-says

Add the disaster from Evergrande and other real estate companies and there will be a perfect storm that will contract the GDP with social unrest as a result. China has to ditch Putin in April. There will be no May 9 parade in Moscow.

[Cronos]

Excellent article and it notes how China lost to northern barbarians right from the fall of the Tang dynasty.

I would also note the early Han losses to the Xianbei.

China’s greatest weapon was its culture. Barbarians through the millennia, Xianbei, Xiongnu, Dai, Jurchen, Mongols etc came and became Sinicized within a couple of generations, losing their culture and even language.

Today the Manchu language has fewer than 100 speakers and they are completely assimilated into the Han.

Even the “Han” are really multiple ethnic groups, with northern Chinese like Xi Jinping resembling Mongol, Koreans etc.

And southern Chinese more Thai, Viet, Austronesian etc.