Replies

We are approaching the internet bubble territory.

8 posted on 03/29/2022 7:49:03 PM PDT by entropy12 (Blockade of Cuba by USA was OK by neocons, but Russia must tolerate NATO weapons on its border!)

Agreed. Shiller currently 25% higher than the 20-year average of 25.9. While Fed is raising rates and ending QE (or as Powell called it "not-QE").

Just like the Fed did from May 1987 to Sep 1987 (before the October flash crash). Just like they did from June 1999 to May 2000 (dot-com bubble burst, S&P 500 dropped 49% to fall of 2002). Then they raised rates steadily from June 2003 to Sep 2007 (S&P 500 topped in Oct 2007 before it dropped 56% to March 2009). It was almost like they were trying to bring down the rapid Bush rebound from the dot-com burst.

Fed raising rates (and in this case also tapering bond purchases) combined with high Shiller PE means stay out of equities.

25 posted on 03/29/2022 8:29:46 PM PDT by Tell It Right (1st Thessalonians 5:21 -- Put everything to the test, hold fast to that which is true.)

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