“... The Ukrainians won’t surrender...”
I probably agree they will not surrender — at least not now.
The Azov Nazis have been defeated in Mariupol. The concentration of their forces are in the Donbas and they have been surrounded. It is only a matter of time for the Ukes. Just like the Ukes will not surrender at the moment, the Ruskies are there for the duration and will be successful.
So far the Russians have not yet taken Mariupol, the forces north of Kiev are being outflanked from the west and their attempt to bypass Kharkov by moving south of Izyum is stalled. Plus the Ukrainians are about to receive some serious anti-ship missiles, which should make Russia's Black sea fleet nervous and dramatically increase the cost to Putin.
Looks to me like Putin is trying to salvage what he can by cutting off a bigger chunk of the eastern oblasts and keeping a land bridge to Crimea.
Who will win? Beats me. It's likely to be a long slog.
uccloudy