True or not, I don’t think China is going to take Taiwan by force anytime soon. Russia can just walk or drive into Ukraine. There is 100 miles of ocean between Taiwan and the mainland. Logistics under duress is not a winning formula.
The Taiwanese are vastly better prepared than the Ukrainians ever could be. They know which beaches the PLA would have to assault. All are trapped and mined and have underground gas pipes. Taiwan is dug in very thoroughly.
The Ukrainians have essentially saved the Taiwanese. Had Ukraine been steamrolled, China would have invaded Taiwan next. I am positive that was, in fact, the actual plan. But Russia dropped the ball and is showing what happens to an incompetent, corrupt military attempting to invade another country. China has all the same problems the Russians do with their military, except even worse, since Chinese made crap is even worse than Russian made crap.
Much of Taiwan's economy is trade with China. Nearly a majority of Taiwan citizens are already willing to vote for a merger. 10% of them already live in China. If the CCP courts Taiwan politely, they won't even need Zuckerberg's $400 million secret sauce. The CCP might waltz in early, though, just to demonstrate to the world their superpower status has arrived.
“Logistics under duress is not a winning formula.”
Hell, it is usually disastrous.
Calling Admiral Yamamoto.
China doesn’t need to invade Taiwan to attain their political goals there. Taiwan is an island too close to China, China can just threaten a blockade - that is to prevent merchant shipping going to Taiwan unless Taiwan kowtows.
The onus will then be on the US, the allies in the area (principally Japan and South Korea) and the “international community” to place sanctions on China (vastly more significant to the global economy), and moreover run “Malta convoys” to Taiwan. That is a direct military confrontation with China. Someone is likely to blink. The good part of this from the Chinese POV is that they don’t need to go all the way. They can blink. They can pull this stunt as often as they like, until the US blinks.
The thing is China has already been discouraging investment into China. This may sound odd but its so nontheless. They may be anticipating sanctions. https://tradingeconomics.com/china/foreign-direct-investment