It’s always Supply and Demand.
IF Ukraine was an enormous oil-producing nation ...
and IF the war was cutting off all of the oil exports from Ukraine ...
THEN I could see shortages and prices increases resulting from the War.
But the prices are up because the US is no longer energy independent and no longer a big exporter of oil. It’s all Biden.
People do not understand the DEMAND for oil is pretty steady.
It is all about the SUPPLY side.
The US has decreased the amount of oil it is producing ever since Biden took office. US future oil production is going to be lower next year and for the foreseeable future. Therefore, people are speculating that the price of oil will go up. We are the biggest consumer of oil in the world.
The Russian oil will still get sold to some buyer at some price. It probably will not be as high, but it will get sold into the worldwide market somewhere.
OPEC wants to keep prices high. It is not in their best interest to increase production. However, they also know if the price goes too high it can put the whole world into a recession. Then demand will go down. Then their profits go down. It is a fine line.
Most likely we will be in a recession by the third quarter anyway.