Question: How long can the Russian economy sustain battle operations

Self | February 26, 2022 | Shotgun

[Vermont Lt]

I said it was a silly thought. Lol.

But, the sci fi kid in my old head loves to think it possible.

[carcraft]

I agree that this war can go on for a long time. Russia has been building up for over a year. Russia has stockpiles of gold, silver etc. I don’t think Russian. Military planners are idiots. It can be fatal to F’up, unlike the US. I do believe The Russians underestimated the Ukrainian resistance. I heard from a reliable source Putin only committed 20,000 troops to take Kiev. This is a city of 3 million.

[EVO X]

I think Putin is fighting this war with one hand tied behind his back. He wants a puppet government with inter structure intact.

I watched an interview earlier today on Fox with a Ukrainian member of parliament. She said the reason the internet was likely still up is a Russian company owns it.

[OKSooner]

So which one of those guys be the big boss, the Generalissimo?

Next question, is it true that Vlad just fired him, or is that just a rumor of war?

If it's true, was there an open bottle of vodka and a Makarov involved?

[Regulator]

One of the major problems for post-soviet Russia is that parts that were manufactured in the old SSRs are no longer available, like say a gyroscope from Baku.

Those factories had only one real customer, the Soviet State, and were non-competitive when their main customer evaporated. Ukraine is an example, as the Antonov, Motor-Sich and Yuzhnoye design bureaus are all running on fumes having lost much of their business which was supplying Russia. To some extent, they and the Russians would like to get back together again in their protected tradespace. They may sell crap, but it was their crap.

[Republican Wildcat]

A lot longer thanks to Biden’s energy policies since he took office.

[griswold3]

Rumor has it tanks ran out of fuel. Lol

[Rockingham]

Even at that, the international financial system can bar transactions using Russian gold. Russia would therefore have to use China as their banker and financial intermediary, with China risking international sanctions for doing so. China would therefore demand a substantial transaction fee and impose exploitative commercial conditions.

[entropy12]

So why did Putin’s Russia start the war in Ukraine?
There has to be a very strong motive to start such risky move. There is always a motive behind 99% of actions.

My own guess based on news here and there is, that Ukraine was angling for membership in NATO, and Russia did not want another large NATO member country on their border. Just my best guess.

[entropy12]

Also large parts of Siberia are not even explored yet for mineral deposits, oil & gas. If Alaska has oil, Siberia could have also.

[entropy12]

If ISIS could sell oil on the black market in Iraq, why Russia will be unable to sell their energy resources?

[Vermont Lt]

I cannot imagine why he would do such a foolish thing. He has lost his grip.

Now, his choice is to destroy a lot of infrastructure or retreat. Neither are good for his health.

[Vermont Lt]

But Ukraine wouldn’t be eligible for NATO membership for years. They don’t pass the basic requirements. Most specifically the ant corruption standards.

Putin knows this. Christ, if I know this…they do.

[entropy12]

Ukraine may not be eligible in theory, but they certainly want to join. What corruption in Ukraine? There is no corruption in Ukraine, just ask Hunter, the big guy and Burisma. They are all innocent as fresh daisies.

[Vermont Lt]

Sunflowers…not daisies. Lol.

[Rockingham]

Isis black market oil sales benefitted from the cooperation and assistance of Turkey, with Erdogan's sons pocketing fat commissions. Russia will no doubt be able to make some oil sales to China and on the black market, but not on the same scale as their current trade and no doubt with discounts and commissions tacked on. Russia's net revenue from oil and gas sales will be much reduced if they have to turn to the black market.

Other sanctions measures could have even more crippling effects, such as a ban on the sale of computer chips based on chips being almost all produced on US made machines. Other materials and products essential to the Russian industrial economy are no doubt also being identified.

[entropy12]

Europeans ALREADY depend on Russian natural gas for keeping them warm in winter and cool in summers. This is on much bigger scale already than anything ISIS was selling.

[Rockingham]

The markets will be disrupted but will adjust. Most likely, Russian oil and gas will mostly be sold at a discount to China, which will lead to the redirection to Europe of oil and gas supplies from the Mid East and other markets originally intended for China. Yes, Europe will be pinched on price and availability -- which will make for a condign lesson not to rely on Russian oil and gas when a murderous thug is running the country.