Posted on 01/17/2022 8:11:41 AM PST by millenial4freedom
Then Rene the democrats are in charge.
Proceed from there.
Very true.
Many economists think the US dollar is going to weaken because of what's going on. Just like in 2008 - they're very wrong.
I plan on moving assets to treasuries when the time is right.
One hint for the investor - stop looking at what's going on in the US and look around the world. That will show you the proper economic signals before it hits the US.
One more hint...China real estate...
ROFL @ Kathie Wood. I'm sorry, she has zero credibility with me.
Many old folks are invested (heavily) in Bond Funds and individual Bond issues. If they continue losing $$ (as they have been) , Biden will become an obscenity on every bathroom wall in every retirement home in America.
I agree. In nearly 40 years of investing, I've never been as concerned as I am now that the Mother of All Crashes (sans, 1929) is likely just around the corner.
Go look at CAPE10. Second highest IN HISTORY. Stocks are hugely over-valued (as are bonds). Inflation is soaring. The Fed is in a trap with nowhere to go.
The likelihood this scenario ends well is not high.
Agree entirely. The Fed is very political. Plus, it will want to be restrained going into the election season, which is not that far away. So yes, probably just a few raises.
The FED tends to follow the market on interest rates, and the market has priced in 3 small hikes this year.
It’s possible the FED will pay lip service to the market until data turns around and the market no long prices in the change.
It’s also possible they make one increase and then lower expectations.
yep, they have to
“the Fall elections (if at all honest) will devastate the Democrats”
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And bring in the Republicans appeasers. They like spending too.
Especially those sitting on huge piles of cash like oh, say Google, Microsoft, Amazon, Apple ...
We have bad inflation. What way do you combst inflation other than to raise rates.
We’ve kept rates so low over 15 years, did we think inflation wasn’t going to bite us?
I wouldn’t buy one of their bonds if they offered it at +100%.
Never going to happen before the midterm...
The fact that our entire monetary system (and those of virtually the entire world) are based on debt means that games can be played for centuries.
"Debt" is simply the promise to pay back money with either our individual future labor, and/or the future labor of others.
All "money" we hold is just "claims on the future labor of others" - which is why we can use those claims to pay off debt in any form. Once the debt goes away - then the claim on the future labor of that debt also vanishes (the money supply goes down by the amount of the debt paid off).
If one understands this concept, then it can be seen that "claims on future labor" can be made infinitely. It's sort of like on big ponzi scheme.
“Higher interest rates are coming, time to shift assets from equities in the stock market to protect yourselves financially.”
Not exactly.
Diversification is at work at all times. Investors have already adjusted their portfolios into stocks and other investments (real estate, energy, materials, collectibles etc. that do well under inflation. They’ve lowered their tech stock exposure for example because tech is what suffers most under higher rates.
I’m already adjusted and just waiting, watching and collecting dividends now. Having been through much higher inflation this is nothing new to us old folks.
Within 3 years the FED and the markets will be more worried about deflation than inflation.
Your loss. I went to treasuries in 2007 when I saw the economic tsunami approaching the US from Europe. Sure saved our financial bacon when everything collapsed.
I got rid of equities, cashed out the 401K and paid the penalty, cashed out a SEP and paid the penalty - all to go into short-term treasuries (US Treasury Bills).
Kathie Wood also has been saying we will see deflation instead of inflation.
************
Have you looked at her ARKK fund lately? I wouldn’t put too much stock into her opinions.
I believe the deflationary monster is going to hit a lot sooner than 3 years. If so, then the investments you mentioned for the short term aren't going to perform well.
If one understands this concept, then it can be seen that “claims on future labor” can be made infinitely. It’s sort of like on big ponzi scheme.
Never feed the pig.
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