The ONS definition of age-standardised mortality rates
Posted on 10/26/2021 6:25:56 PM PDT by ransomnote
The most reliable long-term measure of Covid-19 vaccine effectiveness/safety is the age adjusted all-cause mortality rate. If, over a reasonably prolonged period, fewer vaccinated people die, from whatever cause, including Covid-19, than unvaccinated people then we could conclude that the benefits of the vaccine outweigh the risks.
In order to avoid the confounding effect of age, it is critical that data for each age category is available, rather than the aggregated data because, clearly, aggregated data might exaggerate vaccine mortality rates if more older people, with shorter expected mortality, are included.
The UK roll out of the vaccine was executed in descending age order, from older to younger, except very early on in the vaccination programme when the vulnerable young were vaccinated along with the very elderly. As the programme progressed those vaccinated were, on average, older than those who remained unvaccinated and as the roll out proceeded a progressively higher proportion of the residual unvaccinated population are younger.
The latest Office for National Statistics report on mortality rates by Covid vaccination status provides data on all deaths – Covid-19 related and non-Covid-19 related for the period January – July 2021 for the unvaccinated and the different categories of vaccinated (‘within 21 days of first dose’, ’21 days or more after first dose’, ‘second dose’).
The ONS data for Covid-19 mortality, is given in Table 4 of the ONS spreadsheet and the ONS data for all-cause mortality excluding Covid-19, is given in Table 5 of the same spreadsheet. Both tables are reproduced at the bottom of this post.
We believe there are severe weaknesses and possible errors in the ONS data. But importantly, while it does not provide the raw age categorised data, it does provide “age standardised” mortality rates(also see explanatory video).
This means the ONS have calculated the overall mortality rate in a way which (they believe) adjusts for the confounding effect of age, and this is ‘baked into’ the mortality rates they have published.
However, while they report this age adjusted mortality rate for each of the three separate categories of vaccinated people they do not report it for the combined set of vaccinated people.
In our analysis, and in the absence of the actual age stratified data, we compute a population weighted age adjusted all-cause mortality rate by using the ONS’s published population sizes for each of the three categories of vaccinated.
This is not ideal because the ONS age adjusted rates are so opaque and are not ‘absolute numbers’. However, in the absence of detailed data this should provide a reasonable estimate of what the ONS age adjusted all-cause mortality rate would be for all unvaccinated if they had bothered to report it.
We will call this the ‘weighted vaccinated mortality rate’. The data table derived from the ONS data and used to compute this rate is given at the end of this post.
It turns out that, even using this age adjusted mortality rate, the death rate is currently higher among the vaccinated than the unvaccinated.
The age adjusted mortality rates for vaccinated against unvaccinated for weeks 1 to 26 of 2021 are charted below. Overall, the chart shows that, over time, the weighted mortality rate for the vaccinated has steadily increased and by week 16 (23rd April 2021), surpassed that for the unvaccinated.
The chart suggests a normal seasonal mortality trend for the unvaccinated, with a winter peak on week 6, 12 February 2021, and a steady decline towards summer. In contrast, the pattern for the vaccinated is completely different. From week 24 onwards the mortality rates for the vaccinated and unvaccinated appear to be converging as summer begins.
As the ONS data breaks down the data over time for the three categories of vaccinated (those within 21 days of first dose, those 21 days after first dose, and those after two doses), we can also plot mortality charts for each of these categories.
The mortality rate, for week 26, up to 2nd July, for the unvaccinated is around 25 deaths per 100,000. But there are big differences between the mortality rates for the different categories of vaccinated deaths. For example, for those after 21 days of first dose, the comparable mortality is around 89 deaths per 100,000 people (a number which has drastically increased since January), while for those vaccinated with two doses there were approximately 15 deaths per 100,000 in the same July period.
The trends for the different vaccination categories are also concerning. In contrast to the unvaccinated, the mortality rates for the vaccinated have initially increased from very low initial values, but then have increased, whilst that for the unvaccinated has decreased. The charts below show these patterns.
Since 19th March the double dose vaccination mortality rate has increased week-on-week more or less consistently. The mortality rate for those more than 21 days after first dose increased drastically in the spring (at week 14) and remained high thereafter. Mortality within 21 days of vaccination initially increased but looks to have stabilised, albeit with some noise. We will leave it to clinical colleagues to explain why there are such different patterns.
Because of the limitations and possible errors in the ONS data, there are many caveats that need to be applied to our crude analysis. But we can conclude that the ONS’s own data does not support the claims made for vaccine effectiveness/safety.
It is also important to note that the population of vaccinated people is becoming sufficiently large and representative that the criticality of age adjustment becomes much diminished.
Potential limitations and errors in the ONS data –
Here is Table 4 data the raw data, for Covid-19 deaths, as provided by the ONS:
Here is Table 5 data the raw data, for all-cause deaths except for Covid-19, as provided by the ONS:
Finally, here is the data we used to calculate combined all-cause age adjusted mortality rates and the weighted vaccinated mortality rate.
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From the article: “If, over a reasonably prolonged period, fewer vaccinated people die, from whatever cause, including Covid-19, than unvaccinated people then we could conclude that the benefits of the vaccine outweigh the risks.”
Wait... what?
If I get a vaccination, I expect it to protect me from the disease the vaccine is for, not from other causes of death.
If a population is vaccinated against disease A, one would look for a reduction of cases of disease A *only.* Expecting a reduction of deaths “from whatever cause” is just... bizarre.
How else could you measure side effects?
| Chicory wrote: |
From the article: “If, over a reasonably prolonged period, fewer vaccinated people die, from whatever cause, including Covid-19, than unvaccinated people then we could conclude that the benefits of the vaccine outweigh the risks.” Wait... what? If I get a vaccination, I expect it to protect me from the disease the vaccine is for, not from other causes of death. If a population is vaccinated against disease A, one would look for a reduction of cases of disease A *only.* Expecting a reduction of deaths “from whatever cause” is just... bizarre. |
I've been thinking about this. I literally think it's a threat.
Many hospitals are killing patients - even those arriving for a broken leg or heart attack. They give you a Covid test upon admittance and if your test is positive, they employ the CDC's devastating 'Covid Protocol' whether you like it or not. They can detain you from leaving ('contagion') and deny you access to friends, family, the phone. The sedate you and out you go.
Hospitals Are Killing Thousands with Remdesivir | Guest: Dr. Brian Ardis
Conservative Review Podcast ^ | October 22, 2021 | Daniel Horowitz
Most Covid-19 Deaths were a direct result of the administration of Midazolam or Remdesivir – By Dr Mike Yeadon
theexpose.uk ^ | OCTOBER 11, 2021 | Dr. Mike Yeadon
But I have begun to hear that some hospitals are giving patients Ivermectin if they are double vaccinated, and giving the unvaccinated 'the treatment' (i.e., Remdesivir etc.)
They are also taking the unvaccinated off organ-transplant lists and some places are saying they will or already are denying all treatment to the unvaccinated. Social media is already promoting the idea that your friend or grandma can't get treated for a heart attack because the unvaccinated filled the hospitals to overflowing.
Those losing employment are likely losing medical insurance, too.
So the article seems to be pointing to the next strategy.
'It would be a shame if we had to deny you treatment, take you off donor lists, or simply put you down like a dog with Remdesivir for not being vaccinated, wouldn't it?'
Took me a minute to get what you said, but now I see...
From the article: “If, over a reasonably prolonged period, fewer vaccinated people die, from whatever cause ***[ie, side effects of vaccines]***, including Covid-19, than unvaccinated people then we could conclude that the benefits of the vaccine outweigh the risks.”
Right?
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