“I don’t claim that anything I write is fact - I use terms like ‘may’, and ‘could have’ - and I try to use logic.”
Let us count May’s and could haves in your post:
“There’s a reason the Feds went after his use of the banking instruments, when they could have gone after the van a lot sooner.”
Why do you think they didn’t go after the van first?
That was pretty obvious and available, compared with the time it took to track down his use of bank accounts.