Corona death rate calculator

ncov2019.live ^ | 2021 | Avi Schiffmann

[Brookhaven]

Someone has done a fantastic job of pulling data and putting up a calculator that allows you to look at different age groups and input different medial conditions to determine your chance of death should you catch corona.

We need more hard facts like this to help people make decisions.

And go buy the kid a coffee. Let him know Freepers appreciate his work.

[olepap]

These numbers are bullshit. The app is bullshit

[zeestephen]

Re: "For a healthy male 20-39, the chance of dying is 0.45%."

I stopped reading right there.

That is about 10X times higher than the death rate from influenza.

Healthy young people are NOT dying at a 10X higher rate than influenza.

Please note that the CDC does not count flu deaths and COVID deaths the same way.

Influenza + Pneumonia or ARDS death = 10%-20% Influenza death

COVID + Pneumonia or ARDS death = 100% COVID death

[zeestephen]

More than a month ago, the Cleveland Clinic estimated that 120 million Americans had been infected with the COVID virus.

700,000 Americans have died according to the CDC.

700,000 divided by 120 million = 0.0058

0.0058 = 0.58%

In other words, regardless of age, regardless of health status, only 0.58% of COVID infected Americans have died from COVID.

This COVID calculator is a TOTAL scam!

[moonhawk]

Pulling from official sources?

Seeing as those sources are BS, I’m not too worried that it says I have a 5% chance of dying if infected.

[PTBAA]

These are NH numbers. I believe we have a sufficient number of cases to be statistically valid. Divide the number of deaths by the number of cases per age group to get a rough sense of your worst-case risk (I think NH is counting death with covid rather than death by covid too).

https://www.covid19.nh.gov/dashboard/case-summary

[dirtymac]

looking at what appears to be very high death percentages by age/se groups, it occurs to me that this an ‘uncorrected’ death count in that anyone dying with a mile of a CV-19 positive individual will be classified as a Covid death.

[kiryandil]

Any of you see this yet?

Read this asap, if you haven't:

https://market-ticker.org/akcs-www?post=243683

Denninger's Market Ticker from September 24, 2021.

[Jane Long]

Yes, I saw/read that Denninger article.

ransomnote posted a thread for it...

https://freerepublic.com/focus/f-chat/3997870/posts

[kiryandil]

Thanks!

I just stumbled across it today on Denninger's Twitter feed.

FDA bans Claritin in 3...2...1...

[unread]

The Ohio “Dashboard”.. Lots of numbers, by county..

https://coronavirus.ohio.gov/wps/portal/gov/covid-19/dashboards

[unread]

So, I’m still asking the question... What happened to the herd immunity that Herr Doktor Fuchie told us about at the beginning of this attack.???

[daniel1212]

This is a very, very, poor calculator, for all it asks about is your age group and gender, and 5 conditions, not even mentioning being obese or overweight, nor how fit you otherwise are (like how far/long can you run), and what your living and working environment is like (pop. density and level and length of close contact).

[daniel1212]

Even for 0-19 with no negative conditions it says, "You have an estimated 0.35% chance of dying from covid-19 if infected." However,

[daniel1212]

For the IFR (Infection Fatality Rate, meaning Covid-assigned deaths as a % of the estimated total infections, vs. confirmed infections) in the US, an official CDC estimate of the estimated total infections in the US is very hard to find, but the CDC (Dec. 11) provided a figure of 91 Million Estimated Total Infections and at which time there were about 300,000 Covid-assigned deaths (figures are rounded), and which I think figured (Y is what % of X) into a IFR of 0.33. (Also, stats from one large study of May 2021 finds that 83.3% of the population in America have antibodies to Covid, combining those from infection as well as vaccine-induced antibodies.)

Then we had the CMR Crude Morality Rate(Covid-assigned deaths as a % of the total pop.), in which 586,000 deaths as a % of 332,000,000 tot. pop. (using rounded figures) was 0.18%. As of 9-27 it is 0.21 (708000 out of 333,000,000, rounded) but which will continue to rise since births are down.

[Gene Eric]

For those less than 20 YO, case fatality has been 0.01% or less from the beginning. It’s something I’ve been tracking.

[zeestephen]

About two months ago, the CDC estimated 100 million total infections, and Fauci repeated that number in public.

It is a dangerous disease, clearly more dangerous than influenza, which has peaked out around 0.2% deaths of total infections over the last couple decades.

However, if you are under 60 years of age and healthy, your risk of dying from any respiratory infection is still very low, less than 1.0% for certain.

[hopespringseternal]

I keep seeing an IFR of 0.2% for COVID.

[zeestephen]

Re: 0.2%

That is possibly for certain age groups?

[daniel1212]

"About two months ago, the CDC estimated 100 million total infections, and Fauci repeated that number in public. It is a dangerous disease, clearly more dangerous than influenza, which has peaked out around 0.2% deaths of total infections over the last couple decades. However, if you are under 60 years of age and healthy, your risk of dying from any respiratory infection is still very low, less than 1.0% for certain. "

Which honest assessment is not what is propagated, while the preventable causes of death, mainly obesity and poor fitness, are not stressed, with no program to overcome them, while in fact the shutdown fostered these.

[hopespringseternal]

Nope, overall. The basic problem you run into is the fact that 80% of the population had various levels of antibodies against COVID on day zero. It’s genome is 80% similar to SARS Cov-1, and other corona viruses as well.

That basically means the line as to who is truly infected is extremely woolly. If you only look at obviously sick people you can jack it up to perhaps ten times that number, which is what people do when they are trying to scare you into something.

When you include people that test positive but show few or no symptoms, the IFR is very low.

Which is right? It depends on the situation. For general population and pandemic issues, the 0.2% number should be used. If a doctor has a person with flu-like symptoms, the 2% number is a more accurate predictor, but really that is so dependent on age (80+ gives you an IFR of 5%, while for a 20 year old you might as well assume 0) you would need to use that number for an individual.