Posted on 08/18/2021 4:07:08 PM PDT by nickcarraway
We may see a decoupling between cases and deaths in the fourth COVID wave, experts say
The rise of the Delta variant in the U.S. has led to outbreaks of COVID-19 across the country. But as more people get vaccinated, the death toll in the fourth wave of the pandemic may not spike as high as it did in previous surges, according to experts.
Increasing vaccination rates among Americans may result in a decoupling between infections and deaths -- meaning that new cases might rise more steeply than fatalities.
This trend was evident across the pond: At the peak of the U.K.'s most recent spike in mid-July, the 7-day average of new daily infections was around 47,000 cases (approaching its 60,000 peak from January). But so far this month, the country has seen around 80 deaths per day.
"In the past with that level of infection, we would have seen over 1,000 deaths a day," said Graham Medley, PhD, professor of infectious disease modeling at the London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine.
Before vaccines, Medley said that the number of deaths was the clearest metric to assess the severity of the pandemic. But since the U.K. has fully vaccinated the majority of high-risk individuals -- more than 90% of its oldest and most vulnerable populations, according to government data -- "deaths are no longer the most obvious outcome of infection to the public."
There are lower vaccination rates in younger age groups, and as a result more young people are being hospitalized this time around, Medley noted.
"The Delta variant is able to overcome the vaccine, especially one dose, in terms of its ability to infect, but the vaccine is still very effective against Delta when it comes to death," Medley said. "Vaccination has changed this pandemic for the better."
A similar trend may follow in the U.S., according to experts. However, in areas with low vaccination rates, death tolls may mirror earlier pandemic waves.
"We will see an uptake in infections, but I don't think that we'll see a significant drive in hospitalization and death in the areas that have very high vaccination rates," said Syra Madad, DHSc, MSc, an infectious disease epidemiologist based in New York City. Communities with a 50% to 60% vaccination rate will likely be protected from the most severe outcomes, she added.
Currently, the 7-day average of new daily COVID cases in the U.S. is nearly 100,000. Average daily deaths, which lag a few weeks behind new infection data, are around 450.
One of the reasons why there may be a decoupling between daily infections and deaths in the U.S. is because the majority of the elderly are vaccinated. Just over 80% of people ages 65 and older -- the group at highest risk for hospitalization and death -- have been fully inoculated against COVID-19.
"The surge of death that we would have seen is blunted because of our success thus far in vaccinating the most vulnerable," said Leana Wen, MD, MSc, an emergency physician and health policy scholar at George Washington University in Washington D.C. and former health commissioner of Baltimore.
"However, we are already seeing an increase in hospitalizations and deaths, the majority of which are preventable," Wen added. "That is truly tragic."
Ravina Kullar, PharmD, MPH, an infectious diseases expert and epidemiologist from the Infectious Diseases Society of America, noted that the U.S. may see deaths increase more steeply in areas where less than 40% of the population is vaccinated.
"We've already seen a surge in hospitalizations," she said. "I think that we are definitely going to see an increase in deaths, particularly in those who are unvaccinated and individuals who are vaccinated that have high risk factors."
The rise of vaccine-induced immunity will protect a majority of people from the most severe outcomes of COVID-19. But Medley disagreed with the idea that the vaccine has caused a "decoupling" between cases and deaths. Infections and deaths are still linked -- the vaccine just adds a layer of protection.
"It's just like wearing a seat belt in the car," Medley said. "It reduces your chance of dying, but if you crash into a wall, the risk is still there."
Why did that stop the Eli Lilly infusion?
This is from a 1987 study, I wish today’s coronovoris could be tested with raw milk
After experimental contamination of bovine raw and heat-
treated milks with bovine rotavirus and coronavirus strains, we
observed a strong viral inhibition only with raw milks, from
which virus recovery was 5 x 10^%. Between 30% and 80%
of the virus was recovered from the heat-treated milks, depend-
ing on the level of inoculation.
Lilly has to read a bunch of disclaimers when you call. Fda paused it due to two lesser variants and cant restart until Fda lifts the pause
What do they mean could be. It is less deadly.
I don’t understand why lesser variants mean a pause?
Who told you that?
Any PCR test will identify it as a SARS CoV-2 variant but no more, and a genetic sequence will identify which variant.
It costs more to determine any variant - you need to run the genetic sequencing - but there’s nothing special about Delta.
when trump closed the border and started the wall project he got hammered from people on both sides of the isle...
when the kung flu magically appeared trump got hammered from people on both sides of the isle for not doing enough to stop the spread of the virus...
biden becomes president and opens the border now all of those people that did all of that hammering are suddenly silent...
Doesnt work on them. Brazil and one other country. She did not say Delta
As a conservative podcaster likes to say, "Two [or more, I'd add] things can be true at the same time."
Again, no mention of protection provided by natural immunity for those who have had the ‘rona.
Nothing but the PUSH for the vaccine. The more Vacc. Covidians refuse to discuss natural immunity, the more I tune them out.
Great news, even less to worry about now.
… We are gravely concerned regarding the arrival of a new variant from South America,” Salmon said. “This is a mutation that is currently in the process of overtaking the Delta variant in the United States, and if it reaches here, it will significantly damage our chances of being able to avert another lockdown.
“The vaccine we have is less effective against this new strain of the virus,” he added...
https://www.israelnationalnews.com/News/News.aspx/311817
Not hearing anything in the legacy media concerning deaths. Not a peep. That alone speaks volumes.
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