Posted on 08/04/2021 3:37:05 PM PDT by 11th_VA
Solar Cycle 25 is heating up faster than expected. The latest sign may be found in sunspot counts from July 2021. Continuing a trend that started last year, they overperform the official forecast.
Issued by the NOAA/NASA Solar Cycle 25 Prediction Panel in 2019, the official forecast calls for Solar Cycle 25 to peak in July 2025. However, a better fit to current data shows Solar Cycle 25 peaking in October 2024. This is just outside the 8-month error bars of the Panel's forecast.
July 2021 was a remarkable month. Solar Cycle 25 crossed multiple thresholds, including its first X-flare and, at one point, 6 sunspots on the solar disk. The last time so many sunspots were seen at the same time was Sept. 2017 (SWx archive). One farside CME in July was so strong it affected Earth despite being on the "wrong" side of the sun. A handful of other CMEs narrowly missed our planet.
If solar activity increases apace, some of those blows will soon begin to land. Stay tuned…
THE PERSEID METEOR SHOWER IS UNDERWAY:
So it begins. Earth is entering a stream of debris from Comet 109P/Swift-Tuttle, source of the annual Perseid meteor shower. Although it won't peak until next week, the shower is already active...
When is the peak? The night of Aug. 11-12 will probably be best, with adjacent nights only a smidgen less active. Perseids may be seen at any time after ~10 pm local time. Rates increase after midnight when the constellation Perseus is high in the sky…
(Excerpt) Read more at spaceweather.com ...
Thanks. I feel better now. 😄
I can’t wait for 40m to return to the hey day of the last solar cycle, that was a crap ton of fun.
Solar cycles have a measurable effect on climate. However this report is speculative and may be premature.
Please, Lord! Give us a coronal-mass ejection that drops the power grid on the whole sunward side. And drop it in when both the Americas and Western Europe are dead center. Please. This civilization deserves to die. It makes Sodom and Gomorrah look like Mary and Martha.
I didn’t realize the sun followed our calendar
Well thank you for that courtesy... But no...
After being here for several years now I am convinced there is a crew who works threads with wise cracks for two possible reasons.
1. They want to make sure that there is no productive discussion that might actually produce a viable solution to fix things by creating unneeded distractions.
Or...
2. Because they do not have the same level of intelligence and IQ so they want to bring down those who do have solutions and want to try and fix things.
Basically jealously because of inadequacies so they go out of their way to disrupt any discussion they do not fully understand. If you are not on that level then they make sure and block that level of discussion with unproductive wise cracks and chaos.
Which of these is your personal agenda? Why are we losing this battle? Because of that ignorant disruptive unproductive agenda I have to question whose side you are on? I am not blind and can read just fine.
There is a very real pattern to this ignorant OBSTRUCTION.
It might jump a bit up and down as always, but in the long term we are headed into a very normal and regular glacial cycle. It is late...
Very good, but you forgot “blame Trump”.
As soon as an astronomy related thread is posted, some people are suddenly beamed back into 3rd grade, complete with potty talk and other distracting gibberish. It’s a very strange phenomena.
Lol, I see that too. Why not just read and learn something rather than destroy the whole continuity and discussion of the thread?
Why are the Dems winning? Because of that very effort to disrupt productive discussion. No one wants productive discussion and real viable solutions.
We are hanging on the edge of the precipice and there is a whole crew who thinks it is all funny.
I AM NOT AT ALL SURE THEY ARE ON OUR SIDE...
If it gets too gusty, Guam may tip over, too.
As of yesterday, there had been 5 spotless days. Hardly an indication of a big ramp-up. SC 25 looks to be = SC 24 so far - maybe slightly less active.
P.S. Ever wonder how astronomers counted sunspots 800 years ago?
1. Solar cycle period is inversely proportional to solar cycle amplitude. In other words, on average a short solar cycle will be a weak solar cycle.
2. I don’t have time to find a chart which this writer should have displayed showing that Cycle 24 was a weak cycle, and that Cycle 25 is predicted to be weak as well.
3. Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) drives el ninos roughly every 11 years. Cycle 24 was so weak Pacific circulation has been weak. This caused a weak el nino to happen two years early. It would not surprise me if the weakness of North Pacific circulation is causing the dry pattern in the Northeastern Pacific land mass.
**OOPS! 1. should say: Solar cycle period is DIRECTLY proportional to solar cycle amplitude. In other words, on average a short solar cycle will be a weak solar cycle.
Yep, for real time THAT IS THE PLACE!
opnemind: “You just lowered the IQ level of the thread by about 45 points.”
guess this guy has no sense of humor at all, or maybe its’ just me...
Of course I do, when it fits and is not just meant to disrupt productive discussion.
We have real problems to solve. Why haven’t we solved them? Because of wisecrack distractions when they just don’t fit the situation.
Go ahead and have your off topic fun. The rest of us are actually trying to solve problems with rational productive discussion.
The peak nights for the Perseids show promise, the Moon shouldn’t be a factor. Let’s hope it’s clear in our respective locations.
Maybe we’ll even have some nice auroras, considering the heightened solar activitie.
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