The dealbreaker every other time was the Longhorn Network (LHN, owned by ESPN/Disney). That contract does not run out until 2031 and it seems unlikely Texas will let go of it before then unless they are bought off.
Some are claiming this a master stroke to take the spotlight off A&M during their media day. I kinda think the Pac-12 is a better fit for Texas and Oklahoma, particularly given Austin’s fascination with everything Californian.
I think major college football will eventually condense into four 16-team superconferences where the conference championships act as the de facto quarterfinals in a national championship tournament.
Let’s say Texas, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State and Texas Tech join the Pac-12. That gives them 16 divided conveniently between the original Pac-8 as the Pacific Division and the new teams joining the two Arizona schools, Colorado and Utah as the Inland Division.
The ACC makes Notre Dame a full member and adds one more for 16.
The SEC adds West Virginia and one more school (Baylor a possibility) to get to 16.
The Big 10 adds two more (Kansas and Iowa St.?) to get to 16.
The remaining Big 12 schools as well as the ones from other Division One conferences not in the “Big 4” (ie Mountain West, MVC, OVC, Conference USA, American Athletic) create their own playoff and national championship.