Posted on 04/28/2021 3:10:37 PM PDT by BeauBo
(President Trump's Operation Warp Speed Update)
(Over 300 million doses have been delivered from the factories - 43% of the total population has at least a first shot, 54.5% of adults, 82% of those 65+)
Total Vaccine Doses Delivered: 301,857,885 (17,664,000 J&J)
Administered: 234,639,414 (8,124,392 J&J)
People Vaccinated, At Least One Dose: 142,692,987
Fully Vaccinated: 98,044,421
(Excerpt) Read more at covid.cdc.gov ...
“It’s not a vaccine and those who think it is are idiots….”
****************************************************
Dagnabbit, those newfangled automobiles are NOT CARS. Cars are carriages pulled by horses and always will be. People who think automobiles are cars are idiots.
;-)
“Any guesses at where we will top off? It looks likely we will get to about 60%.”
I actually thought that the 65-74 year olds would taper off after 2/3rds, and then creep up to the low 70’s percentage.
But they have cracked 80% already with a first dose.
Now I’m guessing 2/3rds of adults, and then creeping along at a slow drip, into Fall.
I believe the percentage of the population naturally exposed is more likely over a 1/3, but there could be a lot of overlap among those exposed (perhaps asymptomatically) and those vaccinated.
I think we are already entering a window of herd immunity effects, where cases are dropping because of the number of folks already having strong immunity. That should only grow, as more get vaccinated and exposed. We may have already started the final main downswing in the last week or two.
That is a tragedy. I could see the probability of a close couple getting vaccinated together, and/or getting exposed to infection at the same event, but they have suffered some exceptionally bad breaks.
There has been a lot of human tragedy with over half a million Americans dying over the last year - more than died in combat in WWII. My own family has been struck by it.
Thanks in large part to these vaccines, and President Trump’s historic efforts, we are now coming to the end of our Public Health emergency, while much of the World is building up the next big wave.
A lot of American lives have already been saved. Perhaps if these two had gotten the vaccine just a few weeks earlier, or if the person who infected them had, they might have been saved as well.
https://www.medpagetoday.com/infectiousdisease/covid19/90508
The positive test rate was bound to drop with lower ct counts on the PCR tests.
You should put that story here;
Official COVID Vaccine Injury Thread (examples from personal relationships only)
https://freerepublic.com/focus/f-chat/3954580/posts
Took your suggestion.
Thanks.
Makes the test less sensitive. see post 44.
Hmmm... Monroe County is pretty low pop. Much smaller than, say, Jackson County, IL (also still mostly rural).
Of note is that the vaccination % in Alexander County (Cairo) and Chicago proper is even lower. Granted that SOME rural (mostly white) counties are low, too. The rednecks and the hoodies seem to have something in common.
Yes, when I go in to see my Mom (in LTC) they give me the “shallow” rapid result nasal test. It’s no problem at all. My 1st test (when my wife, daughter and I all came down with “something” but all tested negative, last Sept.) felt like it was going 3/4 of the way to my brain. However, the nurse was very good and it was quick, so, I’d rate it as a bit less annoying than a sweat bee sting, overall. If THAT was what I had to endure to see Mom, I’d do it without hesitation.
I’m going to guess they both had a high viral load exposure at the same time / event. As husband and wife they may also have shared some lifestyle related co-morbidity.
CDC estimates much more than 10% of the US population having had COVID-19 disease. However, IIRC someone on FR spouted out a number of 8X the reported cases. I find that a bit hard to believe, or, cases should be dropping much faster.
...Unless the very mild cases confer quite poor immunity, and I’ll grant that’s possible.
Sadly, at that point I think the patient is so deep into complications and complications of complications that would not respond to such treatments that the situation is truly hopeless. Maybe one of our docs can weigh in...
What I don’t understand is their anger and the name calling. There is much more to this. And I believe it is the same fear that children have when getting their pre-school vaccinations. I can still remember the 4-year old screeching crybabies. Most were boys, btw.
Sorting out the COVID-19 fatalities numbers is “freaky”. Worldometers is showing, for April 28, on the US page table, 954 fatalities. (That table does not go back an additional day.) On the US page graph, they show for April 28, again, 954 fatalities, then for April 27, 884 fatalities, and on April 26, 472 fatalities. But, on the Countries page (table), they show for the US for April 28, 876 fatalities, and on April 27, 883 fatalities.
CDC’s graph at the moment, 1:23 a.m., EST, is showing 556 fatalities on April 27, and 438 fatalities on April 26. The CDC data for April 28 is not posted yet.
The smaller variations are explainable, but, the disparity in fatalities between Worldometers and CDC for April 27 I can’t figure out. I guess I should go back in a couple days and see how those numbers change...
WorldoMeters is also a bit whacky with some other country numbers, with fatalities reported on the “Countries” table not always matching the graphs.
That said, if I go by the graphs’ daily numbers and allow for data jogs (or just use the 7 day average if a day misses the overall trend), several countries look pretty bad.
WOM reports (graphs) 3,647 fatalities in India on April 28, and that number does not look out of line with the trend for mid-week reports. There is little hint of slowing of the rise in this curve. :-( It also seems the lag between cases and fatalities is only a week or so in India: I’m guessing advanced treatments to help one hang on and maybe beat the thing are not available to most Indian people. The shape of the curves is gruesome.
Brazil’s numbers are still high, but at least showing some improvement. A number of other South American countries, like Colombia and Peru, are having a bad time of it. Peru’s case fatality rate has jumped — possibly they’ve crossed the threshold of available care?
Iran has had 4 waves of COVID-19. This last one looks like it has likely peaked, but another week of high fatalities would not surprise me.
For a country almost unaffected until late fall of 2020, Poland has been hit pretty hard. I would not be surprised to see them and several other countries exceed the US fatalities per million, in coming months. (Poland has been a good ally and should be high on our list to ship any excess vaccines to, but, will we?)
Italy has had a hard time of it too, and is doing somewhat better, but they just can’t seem to shake the bug...
France is also having a very hard time getting deaths down - they’ve been flatlined at around 300 fatalities a day for s few weeks. They were flatlined just above that for several weeks prior.
I suspect that if one were to look at the global numbers less the countries doing well with getting vaccinated (US, UK, Israel) and less China (who besides intelligence agencies knows what the hell is really going on, there?), the global numbers would look quite discouraging. :-(
Lines?
I have not heard of / seen online any clinics anywhere near me (mid-South USA) with more demand than clinics could accommodate, for at least a month.
Recently I refigured an estimate I’d made a while back, assuming that my county’s two mass vacc clinics plus other resources (LTC vacs, pharmacies’ vacs at the pharmacies, etc.) could readily do a minimum of 1600 vaccinations a day, 6 days a week. (From what I saw at the largest clinic, the county could have easily expanded to 2000 shots a day, but, I’ll stay with the 1600, and, I’ll assume all residents get two shots.) This all assumes enough vaccine is available, which it certainly is now.
The county population is ~65,000 people, so, figure 130,000 shots if EVERYONE gets 2 shots. 130,000 / 1600 = 81.25 days, which is closer to 90 when you add in Sundays off. Knock off 20% who don’t get vaccinated, and allow for a gradual ramp up, and one is still looking at every person wanting the shots to have them in 4 months.
Us flyover people must be doing something right?
The “mass vaccination” sites here in CA still have multiple hours of waiting in line—in your car—at least two hours door to door.
CA must be seriously incompetent, then, because there are surely enough shots in the pipeline now, even with J&J not making large deliveries... Well, either that or all the lib public in CA have completely panicked about COVID.
The smaller locations and physician offices are quick for shots. But not the mass vaccination sites in coliseums and amusement parks. They overbook appts too which doesn’t help.
Gotcha.
Thanks for the on the ground input.
Learn something new everyday.
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