The U.S. Intelligence Community’s Harrowing Take on Our Possible Futures

Every few years, the U.S. National Intelligence Council, or NIC, gazes into its crystal ball and imagines the world 20 years hence. The latest installment, released on April 8, is a harrowing read. “Global Trends 2040: A More Contested World” anticipates an era even more chaotic and divided than our own, in which institutions at all levels struggle to adapt to abrupt demographic shifts, economic turbulence, runaway climate change and technological innovation. The COVID-19 pandemic, which has left governments thrashing and multilateral institutions flailing, is the shape of things to come.

“Global Trends 2040” is the fourth in a series of reports dating back to 1997 and the most explicit in conceding the arrival of a post-American world. Going forward, it states, no single nation will be able to dominate “across all regions or domains.” Rather, “rival powers will jockey to shape global norms, rules, and institutions.” Geopolitical competition between the U.S. and China will set the parameters of international cooperation.

“Looks like a setup for an argument for globalism to me.”

To prevent tyranny/loss of freedom/loss of self-determinism decentralize government as much as possible, and have many independent ‘states’ in the world that can provide an alternative for those who need to escape the tyranny they are living under.

When there is one world government there is no such thing as political asylum.

Looks like they came up with 5 major possibilities for the world in 2040, as follows:

Renaissance of Democracies
In 2040, the world is in the midst of a resurgence of open democracies led by the United States and its allies. Rapid technological advancements fostered by public-private partnerships in the United States and other democratic societies are transforming the global economy, raising incomes, and improving the quality of life for millions around the globe.

A World Adrift
In 2040, the international system is directionless, chaotic, and volatile as international rules and institutions are largely ignored by major powers such as China, regional players, and nonstate actors. Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development countries are plagued by slower economic growth, widening societal divisions, and political paralysis.

Competitive Coexistence
In 2040, the US and China have prioritized economic growth and restored a robust trading relationship, but this economic interdependence exists alongside competition over political influence, governance models, technological dominance, and strategic advantage.

Separate Silos
In 2040, the world is fragmented into several economic and security blocs of varying size and strength, centered on the United States, China, the European Union, Russia, and a few regional powers, and focused on self-sufficiency, resiliency, and defense.

Tragedy and Mobilization
In 2040, a global coalition, led by the European Union and China working with nongovernmental organizations and revitalized multilateral institutions, is implementing far-reaching changes designed to address climate change, resource depletion, and poverty following a global food catastrophe caused by climate events and environmental degradation.

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