Climate-Alarmist Junk Science and the Base-Line Fallacy

American Thinker ^ | 19 Apr, 2021 | Wen Wryte

[MtnClimber]

With the composite president known as “Joe Biden” pushing ahead with implementing the Green New Deal, the climate-alarmist industrial complex will be ramping up its propaganda to scare as many people as possible into believing that Planet Earth is about to burn up. Unless, that is, we -- the people -- allow our freedoms and prosperity to be whittled away until freedom and prosperity are for most people half-forgotten memories.

So now is a good time to explore the biggest fallacy of all underlying climate-alarmist junk science. This is the “base-line fallacy,” which is a cousin of the statistical “base-rate fallacy”; both result from probabilistic errors when assessing the likelihood of scenarios based on the pattern of prior events.

The “base-line fallacy” involves the selection of a starting-point in the dataset which conveniently omits confounding data, so that the conclusion reached is determined not by objective patterns in the whole dataset but by short-term trends in the partial snapshot of data used in the study. This outcome may be the result of an innocent error by the researchers, and peer-review should pick this up and cause it to be corrected. But this does not appear to have happened with climate-alarmist research. Instead, it is beyond doubt that the base-line fallacy is embedded in the research methodology of such studies and is actually normal practice. This is not credible science. It is political ideology masquerading as -- at best -- junk science. It’s possibly the biggest intellectual fraud thus far in the history of science.

But we need to start at the beginning to understand the enormity of what is now happening in orthodox (i.e., ideological) climate “science”. Dissenters are now few and far between, in part because funding for climate research is now almost wholly aimed at proposals supporting

[MtnClimber]

An orchestrated crisis. And ,like the preceding Industrial Winter hoax of the 1970s, the cure is socialism/communism. Like magic, communism cures the orchestrated crisis.

[JeanLM]

The Piltdown man was settled science once too.

AGW may not be happening.
It may be good if it delys cooling.
There isn’t much we mere mortals can or will collectively do about it.
When oceans rise we know how to build dikes as in Holland and New Orleans.
I hope to see Obama’s “Dacha” in Martha’s Vineyard washed away.

[Montana_Sam]

Science has wrongly defined climate by attributing the medium of thermal regulation to the atmosphere. The atmosphere does nothing more than puff around the weather that the climate instigates.
Until science defines climate in terms of its actual components (the sun, the oceans and exposed land mass, and the moon), we will be inundated with barbaric thinking like that coming from all quarters of the "scientific" community.
Ultimately, we would be far better off if CO2 was around 1500 ppm, rather than the paltry 400+ ppm we have today.

[ThunderSleeps]

Wow, the climate scammers are still trying to base their wild claims off of "trends" from the mini ice age? I thought that particular bit of intellectual dishonesty had been thoroughly outed a few years back.

By now there are a few things everyone should know about so-called climate "research."

Depending on when (what year/era) you start your "study" of trends you can convince yourself of anything. Pick a relatively cool year and everything looks warmer - OMG we're all going to die. Pick a relatively warm year and and everything looks cooler - OMG we're all going to die.

Land use and populations around temperature monitoring sites changes the local temperature. Therefore climate "researchers" have to apply correction factors to historical data. How are the correction factors determined? By comparing to historical data. How is climate change "proven?" By comparing to historical data. So what are they actually "discovering" in the data, climate change or their own correction factors? Well...it is interesting to note that often the "corrections" to the data are larger than the alleged trends "discovered" in the data.

The precision and accuracy of older temperature measurement gear is in fact worse than the alleged trends found in the data. In other words, if proper scientific methods are used then again, the alleged trends in the data are actually lost in the noise (uncertainty) of the data.

The climate computer models are hampered (as a predictive tool) by multiple limitations. They lack memory and processing power to represent the world at a sufficiently fine-grained mesh to accurately reflect all the complex interactions. This isn't a case of just buy a bigger computer, there aren't any computers big enough. Even if we had one, or a cluster big enough, all the variables and their interactions are not yet known or understood. Legitimate researchers are still learning, still discovering things that are important -- that's exactly what the models are for, a learning tool, and the process is ongoing. Illegitimate "researchers" are taking results that fit their agenda and running with it.

[norwaypinesavage]

Theodore Dalrymple wrote an important observation on how oppressive governments have controlled their populations using preposterous lies: " When people are forced to remain silent when they are being told the most obvious lies, or even worse when they are forced to repeat the lies themselves, they lose once and for all their sense of probity."

The lies attempting to be forced upon us these days are as preposterous as anyone can get: A one degree increase in temperature will destroy the world, men can become women, all white skinned people are racists, riots are peaceful, Trump is a Russian agent, Biden is bi-partisan, The border crisis was caused by Trump, etc., etc. The Left will never be persuaded by logic or discussion. They already know these are lies.

We do have an alternative: ridicule. Whenever faced with the opportunity, we must ridicule the liars. It should be short, simple, and never given time to be argued. Simply ridicule, and leave.

[PLMerite]

“Like magic, communism cures the orchestrated crisis.”

In reality, communism merely makes things so bad by itself that one forgets the original “crisis” justification for it.

[AZJeep]

Yes. Plus, everybody likes warm weather.
I do not see any emigration from AZ to Canada.
Warm climate always corelated with abundance, cool one with human misery.

[Basket_of_Deplorables]

“The lies attempting to be forced upon us these days are as preposterous as anyone can get: A one degree increase in temperature will destroy the world, men can become women, all white skinned people are racists, riots are peaceful, Trump is a Russian agent, Biden is bi-partisan, The border crisis was caused by Trump, etc., etc. The Left will never be persuaded by logic or discussion. They already know these are lies.”

It’s all part of the plan. Rule by Elite Control Freaks and Corrupted Criminals with unlimited power is the end result. Socialism, and it’s violent brother, communism, is coming. They follow a recipe.

1. Demoralize
2. Destabilize
3. Violent Revolution
4. Socialism as “the cure.”

Everything we see, every craziness, falls into one of the above 4 steps. And we were told it’s coming, and how they will do it. They were upfront about it, in the right circles.