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Are herd immunity and the California coronavirus variant preventing a West Coast spring surge?
LA Times ^ | APRIL 12, 2021 10:06 AM PT | Rong-Gong Lin

Posted on 04/12/2021 11:38:13 AM PDT by BenLurkin

In California, the U.K. variant now probably accounts for 40% of new coronavirus cases, Rutherford said, but unlike in Michigan, “it hasn’t driven the overall epidemic curve,” Rutherford said.

Part of the reason for that is that the California variant may be outcompeting the U.K. variant for dominating the state. Of virus samples that have been genomically sequenced cumulatively, more than 12,000 cases of the California variant — also known as the West Coast variant (B.1.427/B.1.429) — have been identified in California, compared with 980 of the U.K. variant (B.1.1.7).

The California variant is believed to be 20% more transmissible than the conventional coronavirus strains, but the U.K. variant is thought to be 50% more transmissible and more likely to cause worse illness.

Some experts have said they would presume that the U.K. variant would crowd out the California variant. But Rutherford said, somewhat counterintuitively, that the California variant may be somehow keeping the U.K. variant at bay.

Rutherford said he couldn’t fully explain it, but, “for whatever reason, they seem to be pushing it out of the way.” An upcoming study of coronavirus cases identified in San Francisco’s Mission District is expected to report almost no cases of the U.K. variant.

It’s possible that California will eventually be dominated by the U.K. variant, Rutherford said. “But for right now, we have way more of the [California variant],” Rutherford said.

(Excerpt) Read more at latimes.com ...


TOPICS: Health/Medicine
KEYWORDS: california; chinavirus; variant

1 posted on 04/12/2021 11:38:13 AM PDT by BenLurkin
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To: BenLurkin

Never have I seen so much junk science presented to the public via media lay publications than in this Wuhan virus epidemic.


2 posted on 04/12/2021 11:47:04 AM PDT by ifinnegan ( Democrats kill babies and harvest their organs to sell)
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To: ifinnegan

I have no confidence in the “experts”.


3 posted on 04/12/2021 11:49:57 AM PDT by BenLurkin (The above is not a statement of fact. It is either opinion, or satire. Or both.)
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To: ifinnegan

Including the guy being interviewed in the article.


4 posted on 04/12/2021 11:50:37 AM PDT by BenLurkin (The above is not a statement of fact. It is either opinion, or satire. Or both.)
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To: BenLurkin

No kidding. Who is Rutheford?


5 posted on 04/12/2021 11:51:12 AM PDT by ifinnegan ( Democrats kill babies and harvest their organs to sell)
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To: BenLurkin

It’s double-reverse counter-intuitiveness. There no surge, because there is a surge preventing the surge.


6 posted on 04/12/2021 11:52:07 AM PDT by monkeyshine (live and let live is dead)
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To: BenLurkin

Admittedly, I haven’t followed these variants closely for the last couple of months. But, the last I heard is that while some variants are thought to be potentially more contagious, none have been found to be any more lethal than the original strain.

Moreover, because of evolutionary pressures, viruses tend to become less lethal over time, not more lethal.

This reports directly contradicts that. I wonder what they’re basing that on.


7 posted on 04/12/2021 11:59:02 AM PDT by ScubaDiver (Reddit refugee.)
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To: BenLurkin
Not to mention Mr. Sun.

Covid cooties are famously afraid of the sun.

8 posted on 04/12/2021 12:07:40 PM PDT by Texas Eagle (If it wasn't for double-standards, Liberals would have no standards at all.)
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To: BenLurkin

California or UK variant OK. China variant racist. Tells you all you need to know who controls the MSM.


9 posted on 04/12/2021 12:08:02 PM PDT by alternatives? (If our borders are not secure, why fund an army?)
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To: monkeyshine

“It’s double-reverse counter-intuitiveness. There no surge, because there is a surge preventing the surge.

BOL! We have heard how smart the CV19 is.”

Now, we are seeing how smart our vaccines are in preventing the surge in tandem with past CV19 victims, who are alive and sharing their bounty.


10 posted on 04/12/2021 2:22:30 PM PDT by Grampa Dave (Starstruck tagline:(I'm so old, I don't know whether I'm senile or brilliant. Or happily both!))
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To: ifinnegan

Who is Rutheford?

I think, that this tells us who, he is:

George Rutherford, MD
Professor

My research interests are the epidemiology and prevention of infectious and tropical diseases of public health importance, both internationally and domestically, with a primary focus on HIV and AIDS. My work is funded primarily by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention through the Presidential Emergency Plan for AIDS Relief. I also have smaller projects dealing with the epidemiology of tuberculosis in California, the prevention of childhood injury, immunizations and bioterrorism. I am a member of the AIDS Research Institute’s Executive Committee.


11 posted on 04/12/2021 2:29:07 PM PDT by Grampa Dave (Starstruck tagline:(I'm so old, I don't know whether I'm senile or brilliant. Or happily both!))
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To: ScubaDiver

“Moreover, because of evolutionary pressures, viruses tend to become less lethal over time, not more lethal.”

“They in the past have “burnt” themselves out in time.”

Some of the whackos, excuse me, CV~19 pseudo experts have said that this virus is too smart to burn itself out.


12 posted on 04/12/2021 2:36:46 PM PDT by Grampa Dave (Starstruck tagline:(I'm so old, I don't know whether I'm senile or brilliant. Or happily both!))
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To: Grampa Dave

Hi Dave. Thanks.

I also see that he’s at UCSF which is a good school.

Nowadays that may not matter. He may be solid professionally but just likes to run his mouth to the press. Thinking out loud type stuff.

He may be a hack, as a lot of professors are.


13 posted on 04/12/2021 2:51:22 PM PDT by ifinnegan ( Democrats kill babies and harvest their organs to sell)
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