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I suspect what you will really see is this:

1. Lots of washouts
2. The subpar candidates (who make it through flight school but are still not great) will end up doing the commuter flights for many (many) years. I have a friend who is a pilot with Delta; he is a very good pilot and still had to do that. It was pretty rough and the pay was low, but eventually he got tapped to fly the bigger jets. People who don’t have their eyes-on-the-prize can get frustrated and eventually quit.
3. Many years spent as a co-pilot before being in command.
4. Another factor is the increasing level of automation and AI in the cockpit. The trend is that it will only get more sophisticated and reliale. It has also been suggested that, in another 20 years, these planes will be totally automated with the pilot just being there for backup. For the bigger planes, its pretty close to that right now.
5. The real trouble with be if the tech fails and the SHTF. Then, yes, people will die because the pilot won’t effectively react. But the tech is pushing us in that direction anyway, even for competent pilots. I suspect if there is an accident where the planes crashes & burns, they will blame the tech, not the pilot.

in another 20 years, these planes will be totally automated with the pilot just being there for backup. For the bigger planes, its pretty close to that right now.
5. The real trouble with be if the tech fails and the SHTF. Then, yes, people will die because the pilot won’t effectively react.

My neighbor went through a school to get his Class A license to drive big rigs. Got a job and they eventually put him in a self driving rig. He complained about all the training he did going to waste. Then he got in a wreck. Hit another 18 wheeler in the rear and there were no skid marks. He was doing 70 mph and the traffic ahead was at a stand still. Pushed the 18 wheeler in front of him into another 18 wheeler. I got to looking at the accident scene pics and noticed his rig had red rims but the self driving rig he had been driving for months had nice new Alcoa aluminum rims. Guess they swapped trucks on him and he was so used to the truck driving itself, he fell asleep in the non self driving rig. Killed him and severely injured the driver in front of him and the one in front of that.