They are. They want a pretext to land on any opposition with both feet. Taking a riot and calling it an armed insurrection is the script. It just needs the right pretext to go Sherman on a few flyover states.
I agree that they are actually trying to provoke us as an excuse for a further crackdown. The message got across with the fortification of DC during the inauguration, probably the most surreal and ominous scene I have ever seen. The message is “shut up.” Or else.