It’s Official: Pentagon Puts F-35 Full-Rate Production Decision On Hold

The War Zone ^ | December 31, 2020 | By Thomas Newdick

[PIF]

With critical test and evaluation work still unfinished, the full-rate production decision will be left to the future Biden administration.

In a setback for the Lockheed Martin F-35 stealth fighter program, the U.S. Department of Defense has formally decreed that a decision on full-rate production of the jet is on indefinite hold. The Milestone C decision on whether or not to ramp up the manufacture of Joint Strike Fighters had been due in or before March 2021, but has now been on hold pending completion of the final phase of operational testing of the F-35.

... more than 600 F-35s have been manufactured so far by the Joint Strike Fighter enterprise ... Ultimately, the manufacturing run of the F-35 could reach 3,200 aircraft, depending on different nations’ requirements and emerging new customers. Initial Operational Test & Evaluation (IOT&E) is a formal requirement before the formal launch of full-rate production

This a critical, roughly month-long testing phase was originally supposed to begin in 2017. That schedule subsequently slipped and there had been a hope that those trials would begin this month. Now, the F-35 is not likely to enter the Joint Simulation Environment until mid-to-late 2021.

The Pentagon delaying the Milestone C decision is the latest complication to afflict the F-35 program, which only completed the previous System Development and Demonstration (SDD) phase in 2018 and did so only after the Joint Program Office had deleted a number of test points in order to meet its goals. Despite this, the 10-year-long SDD effort still failed to meet the much-revised schedule.

[Zhang Fei]

F-35 ping.

[PIF]

Foreign customers want the best they can currently get

—
Best is not just equipment specs and performance: foreign customers look at the spare parts & maintenance packages which is why Russian equipment is so popular. If the plane does not pass the tests, there will be no major export market and will cease production as unprofitable - since the profit is based on the 1300 USAF planes as well as foreign sales.

[PIF]

Lowering the bar is the Pentagon answer to all its problems

[Lonesome in Massachussets]

There is the argument that better is the enemy of good enough. The decision should not be based on abstract paper requirements, but a hard-headed evaluation of alternatives. Will the F-35 be likely to provide a cost-effective deterrent, or would the funds be better spent elsewhere?

[Zhang Fei]

[You were just arguing for WWII production with fast cheap and survivable, now that’s a unicorn? I’m confused.]

---

Nothing about WWII was cheap. Every platform was expensive. They just pushed it out the door without quibbling too much about perfection. But it was the opposite of cheap. The war cost 50% of annual output for 4 years. Current defense expenditures are about 4% of annual output.

[Zhang Fei]

[Best is not just equipment specs and performance: foreign customers look at the spare parts & maintenance packages which is why Russian equipment is so popular. If the plane does not pass the tests, there will be no major export market and will cease production as unprofitable - since the profit is based on the 1300 USAF planes as well as foreign sales.]

---

Russian equipment is extremely unpopular because it seldom meets published specs, maintenance is a bear, and parts are of indifferent quality. Where Russian gear comes out on top is kickbacks to purchasing agents, and a low upfront cost. As long as you never need to use the equipment to ward off a competent and well-armed adversary, Russian equipment is good enough. Of course, many customers have no choice - they are typically barred from buying cutting edge Western gear either because of human rights violations or suspicions that they will transfer that tech to countries like China or Russia. In India’s case, it’s a combo of kickbacks and tech transfers that Russians are willing to pass on, but Western suppliers are reluctant to countenance because of a fear of creating future competition.

[bakeneko]

Mission Success!!

The F-35 program accomplished everything it set out to do.

It pre-empted development and full adoption of the F-22.

It diluted and spread American Tech into “partner” countries that might buy it, but might not be “partners” much longer.

[PIF]

Yes it did! Please thank (posthumously) Sen. Obey (D-WI). Flowers on his grave would be a nice touch - wilted ones of course

[fella]

"Don’t worry. The Chicoms will continue production."In the deal the ChiComs struck with Hunter they have scheduled a data transfer on 21 January 2020.

[epluribus_2]

It is not a disadvantage for our adversaries to believe that the F-35 is plagued by problems and underperformed most of its expectations. Some of our most effective and proven appeared to carry some stigma about performance and reliability throughout their life cycles daring enemies to underestimate them. F-111, Tomcat,F4, FA18, A10, too heavy, slow, weak, limited, vulnerable, complicated, etc. Probably most did and scored low on some tests until fixed/finished. All admirably served their missions very well.

But all were far over cost. Expected. (Did not mention F15 and F16 - not much to complain about. Fly by wire did take some adjusting to.

[PIF]

its the certification that its failing and according to the article: if it does not pass, it will not go into full production. You read it and tell me what you think.

[epluribus_2]

Yep. More coffee.

Certifications have some politics in them, I believe since there is always some corruption if a competitor can influence a certifying entity.
Foreign or domestic.
I could see a post certification failure be reversed if offers come in down the road following good news in actual combat over time.

Thought we might some day be able to restart the F22 but seemed to remember reports that the manufacturing infrastructures eere intentionally displaced permanently. Maybe its entire stock of secrets is now taught in Chinese AF war colleges.

[PIF]

I think restarting the F-22 has been looked at 3 ways to Sunday and is too expensive to restart the lines (let alone the cost of the plane itself) and some of the tooling and blueprints may be gone. Besides, autonomous drone swarms or loyal wing-man drones are in favor.

Someone said the F-22 successor is already flying some where hidden like Groom Lake

[maddog55]

It’s been a 20 year failure. They should just end it.

[PIF]

It’s been a 20 year failure. They should just end it.

—
Which? the 22 or the 35?

[maddog55]

F-35.. concept started in 97, LM F-35 was selected in 2001.

[Fury]

This issue inspired me to renew my AFA subscription.

It’s worth it just for the magazine.