Posted on 12/31/2020 4:34:18 PM PST by Capt. Tom
The year 2020 will be a year that many will want to erase from memory as soon as possible. The forecasts for 2021 look good with a vaccine approved in many countries and vaccination programs underway.
But what about the cruise industry? Is there reason to be hopeful for the year to come, or are there still many pitfalls the cruise lines will need to avoid?
We look at what challenges 2021 will bring, what cruise lines will need to do to overcome adversity, and how long financial experts think it will take before the industry is on pre-COVID levels of operations.
Will The Vaccines Safe The Industry? Many worldwide herald the arrival of vaccines as the savior for the cruise industry. However, this seems unlikely. The matter is that cruise lines have enough challenges to overcome on which vaccines have little effect.
For now, vaccination programs are in the start-up stages of operation, and according to experts, it will take many months before a full vaccination program is underway worldwide. The best-case scenario’s to reach an effective virus stopping level is fall or winter 2021.
For cruise lines, the procedures and regulations that they have placed themselves under, and the procedures implemented by the CDC will not be disappearing for another year.
Ships sailing at reduced capacity, 100% testing, social distancing, mask-wearing, and electronic surveillance of passengers onboard will exist for the foreseeable future.
As they are seen by the uninformed as a floating petri dish, the cruise industry will be under extreme scrutiny from the press, government agencies, and the public in the future. Even after a full vaccination program is concluded, it seems more than likely cruise lines would choose to uphold at least some features that have been implemented.
Bookings Numbers Are High, But It’s A Fragile Balance Royal Caribbean, Norwegian, Carnival, MSC, and many more cruise lines have all made statements recently that bookings numbers for 2021 are high. And these numbers do not only include the people re-booked from canceled voyages; many are new bookings.
This is excellent news and confirms that the public’s confidence in the cruise industry has not faded away. The saying that good memories last longer is a valid argument here it seems. But, the balance is a fragile one.
The cruise industry will need to get all the details 100% right all the time in the next twelve months if it wants this confidence to remain high. Incidences onboard a small vessel like Seadream 1, rightly or wrongly, have the potential to ruin all the hard work that has been put in.
The fact is that the news of a false positive anywhere in the world would never gain as much traction in the mainstream media as the false positive onboard Quantum of the Seas; this alone should be a valuable lesson for all cruise lines.
Cruise Lines Have A Long Road Ahead Making predictions about when the cruise industry will have recovered is incredibly difficult while the ships are not sailing yet. However, that it will take years before we see a recovery to pro-covid times seems to be about right.
Passenger numbers in 2020 were expected to exceed the 29 million passengers that sailed in 2019 by several million. For now, projections made by Statista show that passenger numbers will likely not exceed 17 million passengers.
It will be 2024 before we see anything like the numbers we saw in 2019. With ships sailing at 60-70% in 2021, even that number seems optimistic.
Cruise lines will need to maintain a balancing act between several extremes in 2021. On the one hand, the cruise lines will need to ensure that all measures, protocols, and regulations are executed correctly.
Then again, the cruise lines should also ensure that guests can enjoy their vacations. Not a single guest is waiting to be policed around a ship while guests in resorts worldwide can vacation freely.
The resumption of cruising in Europe, Asia, and the Middle East are all positive points on the way to recovery. However, the absolute majority of cruising worldwide happens from the US. Before the virus is adequately contained and ships are sailing as usual, we cannot say the road to recovery has been taken.
The road to recovery, as is often the case, is a long and difficult one. It seems the road for the cruise industry is even longer and harder than other industries, and one that has the whole world looking on.
It might be that going a year without free cruises and writing rah rah reports is taking it's toll.
This article might be an example. -Tom
I’m afraid this industry is cruisin’ for a bruisin’. Customers have short memories, sure, but the only way you get them back on cruises en masse in the near term will be with extremely low prices... and that’s probably what the big cruise lines will do, but the bottom line won’t be pretty.
Environmentalist hate cruise ships because they think,wrongly that the ships arehghly polluting.
The hard left think cruising is the domain of old white people, mostly Trump voters.
The cultural appropriation idiots think that a white person eating a taco is sinful.
The race hustlers think that cruising is a form of neo colonialism.
All of these people have Dog-Face and Pony-Soldier’s ear.
Cruising is dead under Biden.
Coffin Ships
It’s going to be a couple of years before I start traveling again, period. Who knows what else is floating around out there now.
I think you are going to find that all business trips are dead now as well. Nobody is going to spend the time, money, and risk now that they realize everything can be done on Zoom
That seems to be a reasonable attitude.
What the Cruise lines have to do is keep their creditors off their backs who have loaned them BILLIONS of dollars, to give them time to reorganize on their own, and make a go of it without being forced into bankruptcy.
We are going to be just as big as we were before Covid, and maybe bigger won't pay the bills. -Tom
I believe that the cruise industry is dead and they don’t know it yet.
ANOTHER Covid death?
I suggest they offer to pay for vaccine of the passenger’s choice. Rebate to be paid after cruise concludes.
Just fished a 2021 Carnival cruise brochure out of the trash...received it today and it went straight to recycle. Thought you might be interested...
“Up to 40% off + reduced deposits from $50 pp + FREE room upgrades + 0 down/interest free financing. Plus a q-code to scan for Surprise Savings/onboard credit.”
Normally I’m looking for a great price on a good ship or a good price on a great ship but this year I’d pay full price for a normal old fashion cruise.
But I’m never going on a super karen micro managed twice per day brain swab nag fest with lawyers and government goons.
I think the folks who are afraid should stay home and leave others alone but I know that will never happen in the US, Canada, or EU. Maybe the ships will move to better markets.
Good Luck Capt Tom. We are going to need it.
One of the problems the big cruise lines have is they now have too many ships to fill if any countries shut them out.
The ship scrappers are getting more ships to dismantle now than the normal amounts, because the Lines can't sell their older ships as cruises decline and new bigger ships come on line. -Tom
Yes Sir lot of nice old ships being recycled. I suppose it’s good we have a lot of new ones to replace them.
I’ll miss the smaller ships but I suppose the big ones will have a bit more elbow room for a couple of years.
I can stay home or drive in my car without having to mask up and act like I am in an operating room.
I will stay stateside and travel in my RV if I want to go on a vacation.
The problem with cruises will be those self-important idiots that are sick, and know they are sick, but will get on a cruise ship anyway rather than rescheduling for a later date because they just don’t want to miss their vacation.
Many of us feel that way.
I like to go to Bermuda walk over to the Ferry at the Dockyard, and take the ferry ride the length of the Island to St. Georges and take my wife to the Wahoo restaurant for lunch and then take the ferry back to the cruise ship.
The ships don't allow that now, as if you get off the ship it has to be with an approved ship run shore excursion with no intermingling with the public.
The cruise Lines are going to have to make a lot of adjustments to get cruisers aboard. Remember the ships are at the mercy of the Health Authorities in the ports they visit.-Tom
We love the older, smaller ships too. We were on Anthem of the Seas & thought it was too big. We’ve been cruising with Princess & like the size of Coral & Crown.
If I had to own or run a cruise line it would be VIKING ocean cruises.
A fleet of about 6 ships 47,000 Tons, each carrying 930 passengers, 465 crew , no Casinos or people under 18 allowed onboard. -Tom
That sounds very nice.
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