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To: Lazamataz
First, as to applicability of Benford's Law in a forensic context:

From Instapundit tonight --

Here's the cite about statistical evidence being allowed in court cases. Let's see if it gets let thru

11 F.3d 1467 (9th Cir. 1993)

= = = = = = =< that's a 9th Circuit case.

Here is a link to a bunch of other cases where statistical evidence has been allowed

forensus[dot]com/statistical-sampling-case-law/

Replace [dot] with . and you should be good to go

= = = = = = = = This thread shows Banford’s Law in all its glory - even showing Enron as an example.

(sorry, I lost that link, it was thereaderapp...)

?

= = = = = = = = =

Now a FR link on Benford's Law:

http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/3903139/posts

And a pic within that thread comparing races in Wisconsin:

And my explanation within that thread:

Can you tell us in english what these graphs mean?

Yep. Each graph is a bar chart, the digits 1...2...3...4...5...6...7...8...9. That's the x-axis, along the bottom.

The bar chart, shows how many TIMES, that digit, was the first number in a count of votes.

Those are the blue rectangles. To find the count, trace from the top of the blue rectangle over to the Y-axis, the vertical line.

So in the lower left, that's the inddpendent candidate, Jo Jorgensen.

So the digit 1 shows up 163 times (that's how high the blue rectangle is).

The digit 2 shows up 78 times.

And so on.

The red line on the graph is the prediction of Benford's Law.

The shape is right -- you have a LOT for 1, and it curves smoothly down.

Now look at Biden's graph -- it's all screwy, it's got a big hill in the middle. People trying to fake counts, often choose 4, 5, and 6 a lot, because "they're near the middle" and so, instead of being clever and covering up the fake like they think, they stick out like a sore thumb.

Trump's got a bit of deviation too; but that might be from votes being thrown OUT by crooked counters or machine *ahem* "glitches".


174 posted on 11/08/2020 3:46:55 PM PST by grey_whiskers (The opinions are solely those of the author and are subject to change with out notice.)
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To: grey_whiskers

I;ll pass on the Benford Law one then. Wayyy to complex. Will give everyone MEGO, which stands for My Eyes Glaze Over.


181 posted on 11/08/2020 4:06:11 PM PST by Lazamataz ("We beat the Soviet Union, then we became them." - 2005, my quote. I never knew how prescient I was.)
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