Back in 2016, I had a gut feeling that Trump would do well in Midwestern States, because they have a large German American population
German Americans are not bluebloods...they don’t have all this old money....they are humble, middle class in middle America....Trump’s life story appeals to them, as does his outsider status.....and the fact that he’s part German doesn’t hurt either
These people see that he’s kept his promises, and they are disgusted by the riots...which have been prominent in the Midwest....Chicago, Minneapolis, Kenosha, Louisville
I think Trump will definitely do better in this region than in 2016
If you have some time, it’s worth it to listen to Robert Barnes’ conversations with the pollster Richard Barris. You can find them on Barris’ youtube channel. Barnes has bet on elections for decades and is rarely, if ever, wrong.
He delves deep into the demography of MN and WI and talks about the large Norwegian population in parts of the state who are generally single issue voters who vote for the most anti-war candidate on the ballot. Trump won them last time, but his ability to keep us out of wars has them chomping at the bit to vote for him this time. It’s making a massive difference on the ground.
Last time, Trump won these states with tepid support amongst a lot of generally reliable Republican voters. This time, he has his 2016 voters (plus more) AND those tepid supporting Republicans. Combine that with a huge GOTV effort and we have something that is very hard for the Dems to compete with.