If you have some time, it’s worth it to listen to Robert Barnes’ conversations with the pollster Richard Barris. You can find them on Barris’ youtube channel. Barnes has bet on elections for decades and is rarely, if ever, wrong.
He delves deep into the demography of MN and WI and talks about the large Norwegian population in parts of the state who are generally single issue voters who vote for the most anti-war candidate on the ballot. Trump won them last time, but his ability to keep us out of wars has them chomping at the bit to vote for him this time. It’s making a massive difference on the ground.
Last time, Trump won these states with tepid support amongst a lot of generally reliable Republican voters. This time, he has his 2016 voters (plus more) AND those tepid supporting Republicans. Combine that with a huge GOTV effort and we have something that is very hard for the Dems to compete with.
Denver is another city that has seen a lot of rioting (and has a lot of Germans).... I think the way the trend is going, he could easily pick up Colorado and maybe even Illinois