Robert Barnes bets on elections and doesn’t follow polls. He has never lost a bet on presidential or congressional elections. He looks at other metrics. Almost always, the winner of the election can be projected by:
1. Primary results - Norpoth. Person who wins primary votes wins. Trump won 91% of Republicans and outperformed all the Democrats.
2. Incumbent party united with incumbent president wins. Over 90% of Republicans are united with Trump.
3. Voter registration trends. Republicans have out-registered the Democrats this year and the past 4 years.
4. Party identification Gap <5% for Republicans/Democrats. Republicans win.
5. Enthusiasm. Rallies, hats, signs, etc. Overwhelming for Trump.
6. Attention to the election. Republicans are following the election dramatically more than Democrats.
Also, Google searches. Whoever controls the narrative wins the debate. Trump is the most followed person on Twitter and other social media IN HISTORY. Social media advantage wins the election for candidates.
And why did they even give Republics the color red in the first place? Red seems to fit the libs better.