Posted on 10/31/2020 11:40:46 AM PDT by Signalman
Developed by Professor Helmut Norpoth of Stoney Brook Univ., Stoney Brook, NY, the Primary Model (PM) algorithm correctly predicted (both retroactively and for elections occurring after the creation of the algorithm in 1996) the outcome of all U.S. Presidential elections from 1912-2016 except two extremely close elections, 1960 (Kennedy vs. Nixon) and 2000 (Bush vs.Gore). The PM algorithm has been correct in 25 out of 27 elections. That is an accuracy rate of 92.6%.
The PM is not a poll, it uses real voting numbers based on the the number of votes candidates receive in selected early primaries, (currently the NH and SC primaries). Additionally, it considers the historical record of the win/losses of the incumbent party, the "White House" party, after one term and after two or more terms. Since 1960, the White House party, after one term, has LOST the following election only once, 1980-Ronald Reagan vs. Jimmy Carter. Conversely, after two or more terms, the White House party has WON the following election just once, 1988-George H.W. Bush vs. Michael Dukakis.
In March, 2016, the PM predicted, with a confidence level of 87%, that Donald Trump would win the election. This was when almost every conventional poll predicted Clinton would win in a landslide.
2020 Election:
"The PRIMARY MODEL gives President Donald Trump a 91% chance of winning the 2020 presidential election, with Democrat Joe Biden having just a 9% chance. Trump would get 362 electoral votes, Biden 176. This forecast is unconditional and final; hence not subject to any updating. It was first posted March 2, 2020, on Twitter."
362 to 176. Will it really be that close?
Robert Barnes bets on elections and doesn’t follow polls. He has never lost a bet on presidential or congressional elections. He looks at other metrics. Almost always, the winner of the election can be projected by:
1. Primary results - Norpoth. Person who wins primary votes wins. Trump won 91% of Republicans and outperformed all the Democrats.
2. Incumbent party united with incumbent president wins. Over 90% of Republicans are united with Trump.
3. Voter registration trends. Republicans have out-registered the Democrats this year and the past 4 years.
4. Party identification Gap <5% for Republicans/Democrats. Republicans win.
5. Enthusiasm. Rallies, hats, signs, etc. Overwhelming for Trump.
6. Attention to the election. Republicans are following the election dramatically more than Democrats.
Also, Google searches. Whoever controls the narrative wins the debate. Trump is the most followed person on Twitter and other social media IN HISTORY. Social media advantage wins the election for candidates.
And why did they even give Republics the color red in the first place? Red seems to fit the libs better.
That came from the 2000 Election. USA Today right after the election published a map of all the counties in the US that were for Bush or Gore. They just happened to use red for Bush and Blue for Gore. It’s been that way ever since.
If you look at videos of election coverage before that year, Republican candidates were always shown in Blue and Democrats in Red.
Red is a warmer color, so I adjusted to it.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.