The Billy Bush/Access Hollywood tape broke on Oct. 7, which was 32 days before the 2016 election, between the 1st and 2nd debates. Trump’s COVID diagnosis broke at the exact same spot in this year’s election cycle. Better to happen when it did than 2 or 3 weeks later. This too shall pass.
Are you a troll?
What drugs are you on?
I took my probabilistic model for a spin this morning, running it through a Solver optimizing model to study the effect of over-sampling bias on the current polls.
Based on the state of polling today, President Trump's probability-weighted average is 201.7 Electoral College votes, with a 13% chance of winning.
However, if we take away 2.37% from Biden polls and give it to Trump, the election becomes tied at 269. Taking away 2.40% makes it a 270-268 Trump win, with a 51% chance of winning.
In order for President Trump to get his 2016 result of 306 Electoral College votes (ignoring faithless electors), 3.8% would have to be taken away from Biden and given to Trump. This gives Trump a 74% probability of winning.
The conclusion is this:
If you believe that the polls are grossly over-sampling Democrats, a 2.4% swing to Trump makes it a tied election, and a 3.8% swing gives Trump a 2016 victory, probabilistically.
The question to ask is if these swings fit one's sense of over-sampling correction or not?
-PJ
It’s telling that you’re the first to post these negative polls, but very seldom, if ever on the threads with positive polls for DT.
500 RV. Garbage. You seem to post a lot of negative things about Trump and this is election. Perhaps you need to disappear for awhile.
Compared to 2016, don’t see many Biden signs. Then, saw Hillary signs everywhere, including on friends’ Facebook pages. Now? It seems like there is not an election.
Actually he does, he could take Minn, NH and Wisc.
Pennsylvania new registrations as of October 2, 2020 Republicans out pacing Democrats in every critical county:
Bucks County Democrats -3,668
Republicans – 6622
Allegheny County Democrats – 6303
Republicans – 7906
Erie County Democrat - 15 yes 15!
Republican - 1746
Lackawanna County Democrat - 560
Republican -2150
Luzerne County Democrat – 185
Republican – 3513
Commentary
This is very good news. The movement toward Trump and Republicans is picking up speed.
Pennsylvania new registrations as of October 2, 2020 Republicans out pacing Democrats in every critical county:
Bucks County Democrats -3,668
Republicans – 6622
Allegheny County Democrats – 6303
Republicans – 7906
Erie County Democrat - 15 yes 15!
Republican - 1746
Lackawanna County Democrat - 560
Republican -2150
Luzerne County Democrat – 185
Republican – 3513
Commentary
This is very good news. The movement toward Trump and Republicans is picking up speed.