Posted on 10/06/2020 2:59:12 AM PDT by Lazamataz
Trump has done some things well, and he has undoubtedly bungled others. It happens. But there is one over-arching reason to vote to re-elect this man, and it came last night:
“Don’t let [the Chinese Frankenvirus] dominate you.”
Right up there with FDR’s “The only thing we have to fear is fear itself.”
Senate polling currently shows Republicans with a probability-weighted average of 48.99 seats, with a 29% probability of holding the majority.
However, since the Senate polls are often drawn from the same population as the Presidential polls, if we apply the same 2.37% swing that gets the Presidential race to a tie, the Republican Senate jumps to 57.4 seats, with a 100% chance of keeping the majority.
-PJ
Again, I’m not an ingrate.
However, without Rule of Law, it’s going to go away. Everything he did and has done.
May I have a copy of your Probability Machine?
-PJ
Suppose I sign a noncompete/nondisclosure?
Or offer it on the web at a password-protected site?
BTW, applying the poll adjustments from statespoll.com adds 16 EV to Trump's probabilistic Electoral Vote count, and bumps his probability of winning to 18%.
I will redo my optimizations with the new poll adjustments, to see the poll bias sensitivities.
-PJ
I’m not nitpicky,
Just a Smartass!
Thanks.
It’s a LAZ thing.
The classic punishment for this sort of treachery is the gallows.
Try this one:
Take away 1.5m students from Biteme
Take away 3-5m blacks who either vote Trump or don’t vote at all from Biteme
Tell me how Biteme comes close to winning the popular vote JUST with those shortfalls. Where will he make up 4.5 to 6.5m voters??????
Some people have been whining "But what happens if Trump doesn't leave the White House after the election?" Note they didn't ask whether Trump wins or not, to this group, whether he wins or not it's irrelevant, the election has been held so he has to leave!
If that take-away amounts to 2% of Biden's polling number, the race is tied.
If it is 3% of Biden's polling number, Trump repeats 2016.
-PJ
I took my probabilistic model for a spin this morning, running it through a Solver optimizing model to study the effect of over-sampling bias on the current polls.
Based on the state of polling today, President Trump's probability-weighted average is 201.7 217.05 Electoral College votes, with an 13% 18% chance of winning.
However, if we take away 2.37% 2.11% from Biden polls and give it to Trump, the election becomes tied at 269. Taking away 2.40% 2.15% makes it a 270-268 Trump win, with a 51% chance of winning.
In order for President Trump to get his 2016 result of 306 Electoral College votes (ignoring faithless electors), 3.8% 3.62% would have to be taken away from Biden and given to Trump. This gives Trump a 74% 75% probability of winning.
The conclusion is this:
If you believe that the polls are grossly over-sampling Democrats, a 2.4% 2.1% swing to Trump makes it a tied election, and a 3.8% 3.6% swing gives Trump a 2016 victory, probabilistically.
The question to ask is if these swings fit one's sense of over-sampling correction or not?
-PJ
Is that based on students not voting at all, not voting in two places, or both?
Any idea how prevalent student double voting is?
Laz, the last three days have been some of the most entertainig I have seen in a long time, exploding heads across the full spectrum of the MSM Fake News.
I am reminded of Mark Twains famous saying:
“Rumors of my death are much exaggerated.”
Watching our president lay the wood to these lefty , head in the sand , freedom hating psychopomps, is the very best that could be happening on the Trump campaign for the last 30 days.
The polls have gone completely inaccurate, or as William Shagspeare said:
“With this regard their currents turn awry” ( Hamlet)
They are polling an “alternate reality,” just like in 2016. This is a sure sign that the President will win in a 40 state plus land slide.
The Laz Ping Conquets ALL ( grin)
This is # of students x 30% turnout (vs 40% in 2018) x 60% of them DemoKKKrats.
You don’t need to be on Twitter to follow Twitter. This is the problem that Parler, etc have.
I’m not a member of twitter and I can read the professor every day. :)
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