The Polls Are Always Right!
HISTORY
|
</sarcasm> |
Posted on 10/01/2020 6:03:47 PM PDT by ReelectTrump2020
I keep seeing how the polls are incredibly biased. I have no reason to question that statement but, in the words of the great President Reagan, we should always trust but verify. Does anyone have statistical analyses that support the existence of bis and just how far warped the polling currently is? Would love to see some so I can try to undistort the current polls
*bias
A bias sample cannot be fixed.
Usually a < 3.8 percent margin of error with a 95 percent confidence level.
Waste of time. Unless your going to be doing polling yourself you should find something more useful you can do for the campaign.
The Lame Stream Media went silent about 9:00 PM Central time. Any guesses when they’ll do it this November?
Have you stopped beating your wife?
Have you stopped beating your wife?
You shouldn’t trust polls at all until you have dug into the internals and corrected for the actual electorate and intentional polling fraud.
Pollsters seem to think that Democrats are 40-50% of the electorate and draw samples based on that distortion. So you get stupid results 10+ points off reality.
I don’t know how supposedly “biased” the polls are. What I do know is that in 2016, the Presidential polls average showed that just prior to election day, Hillary was ahead by 3.2 points — Hillary won the actual popular vote by 2.1 points. That’s decent accuracy.
The problem for President Trump is that Basement-Biden has maintained a rock-steady 6-8 point lead for the entire month of September and is currently ahead 7.2 points, about that range’s midpoint. In contrast, Hillary’s poll lead in September 2016 fluctuated between 1 to 5 points, settling at the midpoint of 3.2 points by election day.
I am very concerned by those statistics and based on them, I expect Basement-Biden to win the actual popular vote by 6 percent along with an Electoral College victory (barring an October Surprise). Even worse, Basement-Biden is a slightly better candidate than the awful Hillary. IMHO, things do not look good for Trump. Hoping and praying for a miracle.
The Polls Are Always Right!
HISTORY
|
</sarcasm> |
You don’t need to tear apart deep internals of most polls to know they are garbage.
For example a poll came out this past week showing Biden up 10 in PA.
I don’t have to take a single look at the internals to know their sampling or weighting or both are abject junk.
Why? Simple. For Biden to have that kind of lead here is to claim that Biden is going to perform on par with Obama did in 2008 and Trump is going to perform like McCain. This is ludicrous... to buy this you have to believe Trump who got more votes in PA than any other GOP presidential candidate ever, is now suddenly going to lose by 10 points it’s a joke.
I have issued this challenge now for months... and it is open to anyone
Find me a single solitary poll, I don’t care if it’s a single state poll in the bluest state or a national poll by the most left wing organization. Show me any poll that’s asked these standard questions:
Who did you vote for in 16?
And
Who do you plan to vote for in 20?
And publishes their internals that shows anything but a net movement toward Trump.
Show me one, any one... until someone can show me one any poll showing Trump losing is garbage.
Try the web site of the Media Research Center. They have been tracking bias statistically for decades.
Look for guidance from external factors:
No enthusiasm for Biden. Amazing turnout for Trump. Stories of black and Hispanic movement toward Trump. News media memes designed to discourage minority voters for Trump.
Weigh those and other factors (2016 polling garbage) and disregard most of the current polls.
The party mixture of the sample will determine the outcome. If a pollster says . . . the electorate looks like it did in 2016 then the samples will have the party mixture present in the exit polls that day.
If they prefer to say . . . the electorate looks as it did in 2018, then there will be extra democrats in the party mixture and you’ll get big Biden leads.
They can get any result they want. They know who (what party) lives in what zip code or area code. Their concept of “representative” derives back to their picture of the electorate. A 2018 picture will generate a pro Democrat “representative” sample. A 2016 picture will not.
Of some significance is the absence of a strong Libertarian candidate. Or the Mormon anti Trump candidate in 2016. They aren’t there this year. That item matters in Arizona. And a bit in Nevada.
Polls are not worthy of being verified. Liars that are known liars do not deserve that attention or the waste of anyone’s time.
1 hour & 15 minutes and you have not responded to a single post.
That’s actually a solid point.
The Quislings try to get attention and get a subtraction from the Trump vote totals in Battlegrounds. They are all swamp dwellers, and I have not seen any internals showing anything less than 90% GOP party mix saying they will vote Trump.
This has always been the desperate Democrat perspective . . . “we have voters who did not turn out in 2016” But no, they don’t.
They had some white males in battlegrounds who voted Obama. They switched to Trump. Where is the evidence they will go back to Democrats? There is definite evidence of Black males moving to Trump. This is largely invisible to the Democrats since their focus is Black women, most of whom are in government.
Those Black males aren’t polled, either. Not a history of voting so they don’t get through the LV screen.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.
