I think they’re missing it: high turnout on the ends (R/D) low turnout for the indies. I think there will be tremendous confusion among “low information voters” so that they just stay home. Eight months ago they would have voted Trump on the economy. I don’t think they blame him, but I don’t think their personal circumstances are such now they would vote for him.
You cannot win an election based on “He’s Not X”, alone.
Romney proved that in 2012. The only reason Joe will get the votes is because he’s not Trump.