You cannot win an election based on “He’s Not X”, alone.
Romney proved that in 2012. The only reason Joe will get the votes is because he’s not Trump.
https://www.nbcnews.com/specials/swing-the-election/
Here is a fun site. When I put in Trump 15% blacks (12 % actual vote plus 6% stay at home, or 1/2% x 6; Hispanics at 38%; and dropped the share of the 18-24 vote to 31%, Trump is at 306-320.