To summarize Bongino’s analysis, he’s basically saying that this year’s election is a base election, meaning whoever can excite his base enough to come out and vote in large numbers will win. Unlike most elections, the undecideds don’t play a decisive role in base elections.
The electorate is roughly 40% Republican, 40% Democrat and 20% Independent. Rather than trying to win over the remaining undecideds among the independents (who are probably fairly few at this point) the strategy of a base election is to fire up his base (the 40% of Republicans) enough to get a huge turnout while encouraging the opponents base to stay home in large numbers. If 80% of his base turns out to vote and 30% of Biden’s base turns out to vote, the independents don’t really matter.
Trump’s main strategy in the debate was to discourage Biden’s base while firing up his own. Towards that end he was successful. Trump’s main goal was to get Biden to disavow the left wing of his party, and he succeeded in doing that. The more Biden equivocates on whether he’s a moderate or radical, the more he alienates both wings of the Democrat party and encourages them to stay home.
Any way, that’s just a summary, and Bongino included many clips and examples from last night’s debate to help make his case. It’s worth the watch.
I don’t think that there are equal numbers of registered Rs and Ds. The D party has been losing numbers and R party has been gaining registered in quite a few states. I’d like to see stats. LS knows about this, maybe I’ll ask him tomorrow.
I agree with this and will add...
At the start Trump went for the democrat vote.
Alot walk away in 2016 and a lot of those voted for Trump
because the left went so far (bathrooms)
and turned off their voters.
New voter voting for Trump = 1 vote for Trump
Old dem voting Trump is -1 for DNC and +1 for Trump
It’s like 2 votes.
Trumps job performance has exceeded expectations.
More dems will be voting for Trump 2020
Thanks, very much.
I appreciated what you described of the close ups of the candidates making a big difference, and agree that watching continuous long camera shots (on RSBN) was abysmal, as from a balcony, ruined it for me, stuck on a cell phone.
That visual detachment from the subjects only served to magnify the hearing of the catterwauling and Chris Wallace’s case of oral interruptus, until I was no longer watching for coherence or content, but the slow motion progress of a train wreck, and only in case there were political fatalities, or fists to cuffs. %:#
I watched the Bongino show you’re referencing and that’s an accurate and terrific summary. I wish I’d read it before I watched it :)