Posted on 09/23/2020 11:00:30 AM PDT by Signalman
The President is holding a Peaceful Protest in Newport News, VA on 9/25. I'm wondering if his internal polls are showing he is close in VA or, possibly, is ahead. If Trump wins VA, I think it's game over for the Dems.
Any VA FReepers have a sense of the President's chances?
The local TV stations in southeastern Va are watched in northeastern NC.
McAwful institutionalized vote fraud in this state.
No chance the GOP ever comes back.
You also need to recognize that Virginia has changed. It is no longer a rural state and about 30% of its vote come from Northern Virginia, a part of the state that is more similar to the northeast part of the country than the south. Populated by legions of government workers and contractors, these folks loathe Trump. Trump only received 28.1% in Fairfax County in 2016 out of over 555,000 votes cast in the county. He won't do any better in 2020.
Virginia at the county level is almost entirely red. The metro regions (NOVA, Richmond, Norfolk) with their large populations are blue and that makes all the difference. Virginia popular votes are aggregated and that puts Virginia in the blue column for Biden. Yet, hope persists and so I’ll still go to vote.
McAwful removed checks on voter registrations to see if they were citizens.
Non-citizen voting is way up.
Probably going to help VA GOP House Members.
Disagree strongly he lost by less then 5 Points with Tim Kaine on the ticket if he really put effort into it he could make it interesting and make Biden have to spend money in October in a place he really doesnt want to the GOP there didn’t even bother putting candidates in about 30 percent of the districts for the state legislature that’s on the VA GOP bot
Trump
I am afraid Virginia is a lost cause.
I even know one of those suburban moms that always vote republican but she can't stand Trump because he's divisive, coarse and shouldn't be president, so she is going to vote for Biden. It leaves me speechless because she is very culturally conservative and economically conservative but she is going to vote for Biden. It is irrational. She absolutely hates him.
The Virginia we used to know is gone.
There used to be a rule, that if the republican can get 40% in Fairfax County, the republican would win the state, but that is no longer true. Virginia Beach is just 50/50 now, Richmond suburbs are no longer only red, so the rural areas have to make up for the rest of the state and there just aren't many of those voters.
I think it's great Lee County votes 80% red, but there aren't many voters in Lee County.
I also want the very corrupt Mark Warner to lose, too, but that isn't likely, either.
Virginia is more liberal than it was 4 years ago. Northern Virginia is growing by the day with more people moving in from Maryland and other liberal northeastern states.
The Virginia GOP is an absolute disaster and is no help to Trump or to defeat Mark Warner, either.
Trump is not spending any commercial money in Virginia except some in Northern Va for the political class. That tells me a whole lot. I watch where campaigns spend their money and you know what states are in play. Trump needs Pennsylvania much more than he needs Virginia - but you never know.
If Biden falls apart in the debates, then possibilities develop, but I expect Biden to do fine - he did fine in his last debate as a democrat candidate.
Well the Trump campaign is clearly seeing something you’re not this is right from their website
The Virginia Trump Victory 2020 campaign is hosting a Super Saturday of Door Knocking Event in Prince William County every Saturday until November 3rd! Join us and fellow Trump Victory supporters to help re-elect President Donald J. Trump and Republicans! Your support is crucial to Keeping America Great in 2020.
I live in NOVA too, but probably further south than you. I’m just across the Occoquan in Woodbridge. I live in an older neighborhood that is a mix of skilled craftsmen, office professionals, and lower to mid-level government types. The lockdown changed the neighborhood only in the sense that we now have even more time to actually be in the neighborhood and ignore each other. The prospect of getting COVID by being neighborly just reinforced the already healthy social distancing being practiced.
(My perspective here is slanted. We are empty nesters (children are now in their late 30s)and that really cuts down on the need to interact.)
During election season, it’s not very political, although yard signs do popup in a few yards (sort of like mushrooms appear in the lawn after hot summer showers). The signs normally show up after campaign workers canvass the neighborhood. I have a prominent “No Soliciting” sign on my door, so I don’t get visited (which suits me just fine).
I mention this because there are virtually no Biden or Trump campaign signs in any yard I drive past going to shop, over to the mall, to the doctor, etc. Strictly unscientific sampling, of course. There may be some down a side street, etc. Maybe they will eventually show up in October after the debate cycle.
I’m hoping that Trump demolishes Biden in the first debate next week. Trump is lowering expectations by noting Biden is a very experienced debater and he isn’t. Personally, I hope Trump goes through Biden like Patton went through the Wehrmacht in France and Germany. I hope Creepy Joe crawls back into his basement and refuses to come out and go more rounds with “Orange Man Bad.” If he does return, no mercy.
(If you read some of my past postings on Biden, you will see I have the same sympathy for him, as a person, that a number of Republican leaders have expressed. Even if he agreed to it, what the Democrat Party is doing to Joe Biden is criminal. Assuming Trump is victorious, I just hope there is a real reckoning with the Democrat Party leadership - every single one of them - for this crime.)
As for the VP debates, I hope Harris puts on a full throated crazy Democrat b**ch Senate confirmation hearing display so that VP Pence can deal with it in his usual dignified and calm manner (just to show how dangerous it really would be if she was in charge ever).
Then if we can get BLM and AntiFa to continue their Fall 2020 Voter Alienation Campaign right up to election time maybe, just maybe enough nominally blue voters will flip to make VA red. Personally, I doubt it as the Dems are pushing the “we got free stuff for POCs/stick it to whitey” line pretty hard.
But you can never tell. So, yeah, I’m definitely going to vote.
By contrast, the Biden team is knocking on zero doors a week. There has never been a national campaign with no door knocking until now. His campaign team is using Covid as an excuse for not going door-to-door. Biden is relying on local and federal candidates to drop off literature as they make their rounds, but he is not as well served as he would be if he had his own team of volunteers.
To determine if a candidate is contesting a state, all you need to do is see which state has advertising - that is the key and Virginia has some Trump ads in Northern Virginia and that is just so the political class gets to see them and that is per Trump's campaign.
The other thing to look at is Virginia considered a battleground state this year? No, it isn't. There is absolutely no chatter and no discussion about it anywhere on any medium.
It would also help if Gade was a stronger candidate. It's not completely his fault, but he is not well funded and one would hardly know a senatorial election is taking place. Sometimes a high profile lower race can help a higher race, but not this time. I loathe Mark Warner and would love to see him lose, but very doubtful. The polls I have seen have Biden winning Virginia by 15 to 18 points - but I don't believe the margin is that big, but it discourages fund raising for the senate race and other things.
It's possible Trump is testing the waters in Virginia. Campaigns will often poll right before a visit and right after a visit to see if it made a difference and if it does, it could mean further visits if the trend is in his direction.
We don't know if there is a backlash brewing against Gov. Blackface and the state legislature for the gun regs passed and doing away with voter ID and other things...there might be some, but it is hard to know if that will translate to votes on election day.
I would be euphoric if Trump won Virginia, but it isn't a conservative state anymore, so it will take something extra to win. One of the wild cards is who will show up on election day? No one ever really knows the answer. Will democrats be demoralized with the passing of RBG and not show up? After all, the only reason Trump won in MI and PA in 2016 is that blacks did not show up in Detroit and Philadelphia and vote in the same numbers for Hillary as they did for Obama.
I think everyone acknowledges there will be a record turnout this year - everyone is voting. Trump spurs so many emotions from hatred to adulation that everyone wants to be counted.
I saw an interesting thing from Florida a few days ago. It is only Sept 24, but over 250,000 people have requested ballots that did not vote in 2016 - that is a huge number so early - and that gives you an indication of the numbers that may be voting.
I didn't mean to ramble on and I think there is always hope (unless you are in Cali), so while the odds are against Trump taking Virginia, Trump is a force of nature that creates his own weather, so lightning could strike and besides there are always things that affect elections that haven't even happened yet. Will there be indictments or nothing until after the election, etc.
Christopher Newport just released a few new polls this morning with Biden in front by 5 points in Virginia and Warner in front by 13 points. For Trump, this is a big improvement (that is if the earlier polls were correct, which is a big if), so if this poll is correct, then Trump does have a chance with 5 to 6 weeks left to go.
That’s what I was saying no way do they ground game Virginia like they do if they don’t think they can pull a surprise most of Trumps money has gone into voter contact and ground game that’s why ads even in battleground states are 2 or 3 to 1 for Biden, the Trump camp has let it be known they are going to use Obama’s 2012 GOTV operation and a blueprint we will see if it works heck I’d try to flip back Colorado while I was at it
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.