Joe Biden’s true lead is non-existent.
My sense is that Trump should carry the states he won in 2016 and maybe pick up 2 or 3 he lost by narrow margins. The main thing the Democrats have going for them is voting by mail and the chaos that will create. Unfortunately several of the critical swing states have Democrat governors—Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, Minnesota. I’m not sure how much damage the governor alone can cause—it may depend on which party controls the state legislature or which party the state attorney general belongs to.
Just finished a road trip through Colorado, Nebraska, Kansas, Oklahoma, and Texas. Saw many Trump signs and banners. Nary a Biden one, though.