Posted on 08/26/2020 10:11:20 PM PDT by EinNYC
I've been religiously watching Accuweather, NOAA, and Weather.com to see what is the latest with Hurricane Laura. I feel absolutely horrible at the predicted damage and loss of life. Hurricane Laura is going to be only a few mph less than a Cat 5 storm. They say it will have 20 ft storm surges near Lake Charles, LA---which will completely be over the roofs of houses. I hope no one stayed there, with all the warnings to get out, and I hope no pets/livestock were left behind.
It’s coming in at about the best possible spot. Lots of pasture to the east of Lake Charles. So that’s a plus.
Going to be a major hit.
And the turn North should spare Houston.
I will be shocked if roofs of houses in Lake Charles are covered, except for those in the very lowest areas.
This will be the biggest storm with the greatest impact since Katrina.
But, I wouldn’t want to be in Cameron, Louisiana this very instant!
October 2018, Panama City to Port Joe still 50% damaged, cat 5. Not 4, 5.
I hear there are people in Cameron that refused to evacuate.
Granted, there is not a whole lot of people south of Lake Chuck, but what is there will be wiped out.
There will be severe damage from west of Sabine Pass to Lafayette
This storm will have a huge impact both physically and culturally.
The storm is so devastating. So epic in proportion The Weather Channel has their people outside right in the middle of an epic catastrophe. With camera crews.
6 Aug: Dr. Roy Spencer: Even with Laura, Louisiana Hurricanes Have Not Increased Since 1851
As I write this, it looks like major Hurricane Laura will arrive on the Louisiana coast late tonight as a Category 4 hurricane somewhere south of Lake Charles.
There will be the inevitable fake news coverage claiming how U.S. landfalling hurricanes are getting worse, a subject which I addressed in my Amazon Kindle e-book Inevitable Disaster: Why Hurricanes Can’t Be Blamed on Global Warming.
Of course, hurricane damage has increased, as people flock to the nation’s coasts and associated infrastructure increases. But we should remember that (for example) Miami only had 444 residents when incorporated in 1896, and now the Miami metroplex has over 6,000,000 inhabitants.
So, yes, storm damage will increase, but not because the weather has gotten worse...
http://www.drroyspencer.com/2020/08/even-with-laura-louisiana-hurricanes-have-not-increased-since-1851/
24 Aug: Forbes: Stop Blaming Climate Change For California’s Fires. Many Forests, Including The Redwoods, Need Them.
by Michael Shellenberger
https://www.forbes.com/sites/michaelshellenberger/2020/08/24/stop-blaming-climate-change-for-californias-fires-many-forests-including-the-redwoods-need-them/#604cc08270b3
Thanks. I’m familiar with Dr. Roy Spenser. Rush refers to his work quite regularly and apparently is a friend.
Joe Bastardi of Weatherbell Analytics also refers to his work regularly.
‘Best possible spot”? That’s refinery central being slammed
It’s a serious storm, certainly, but hyped beyond belief, as always. We’ll see how much surge by morning.
And, there is not a less populated area along the Gulf Coast that a storm could hit than this strip east of Beaumont
Location...About 40 MI S of Lake Charles LA
...About 45 MI E of Port Arthur TX
Max Sustained Winds...150 MPH
Moving...NNW at 15 MPH
Minimum Pressure...938 MB
000
WTNT43 KNHC 270255
TCDAT3
Hurricane Laura Discussion Number 29
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132020
1000 PM CDT Wed Aug 26 2020
Extremely dangerous Laura has the signature of a classic hurricane
on satellite images, with a well-defined eye surrounded by very
deep convection. There is little evidence of shear, and the
upper-level outflow pattern is extremely well defined, while the
cyclone is over sea surface temperatures near 30 deg C.
Observations from both NOAA and Air Force Hurricane Hunter
aircraft show that Laura continued to strengthen during the
evening. Using a blend of adjusted flight-level and SFMR-observed
surface winds, the intensity estimate is 130 kt for this advisory.
Since there is now little time remaining for the system over water,
no significant change in intensity is anticipated until the center
crosses the coastline. Laura will weaken rapidly after it begins
to move over land, but destructive winds should spread well inland,
more than 100 miles, along its path. Later in the forecast period,
the ECMWF and U.K. Met. Office global models indicate some
baroclinic re-intensification as the remnants of Laura move off the
U.S. East coast, and this is reflected in the NHC forecast.
Laura has begun to turn northward as it moves around the western
side of a subtropical high pressure area, and the initial motion is
about 340/13 kt. The track forecast is essentially unchanged
from the previous advisories. The cyclone should move through a
weakness in the ridge and turn to the northeast over the next day
or two. Then the system should accelerate toward the
east-northeast while embedded in the westerlies. The official
track forecast remains close to both the simple and the corrected
dynamical model consensus predictions, TVCA and HCCA.
Laura is a large hurricane, and users are reminded to not focus on
the precise track forecast since wind, storm surge, and rainfall
hazards extend far from the center.
Key Messages:
1. Unsurvivable storm surge with large and destructive waves will
cause catastrophic damage from Sea Rim State Park, Texas, to
Intracoastal City, Louisiana, including Calcasieu and Sabine Lakes.
This surge could penetrate up to 40 miles inland from the immediate
coastline, and flood waters will not fully recede for several days
after the storm.
2. Hurricane-force winds are expected tonight in portions of the
hurricane warning area, with catastrophic wind damage expected
where Laura’s eyewall moves onshore. Hurricane-force winds and
widespread damaging wind gusts will spread well inland into portions
of extreme eastern Texas and western Louisiana early Thursday.
3. Widespread flash flooding along small streams, urban areas, and
roadways is expected to begin overnight tonight into Thursday from
far eastern Texas into Louisiana and Arkansas. This will also lead
to minor to moderate freshwater river flooding. The heavy rainfall
threat and flash and urban flooding potential will spread
northeastward into the middle-Mississippi, lower Ohio, and Tennessee
Valleys Friday night and Saturday.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 27/0300Z 29.0N 93.2W 130 KT 150 MPH
12H 27/1200Z 31.0N 93.7W 95 KT 110 MPH...INLAND
24H 28/0000Z 33.8N 92.9W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND
36H 28/1200Z 35.6N 91.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
48H 29/0000Z 36.8N 88.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
60H 29/1200Z 37.5N 82.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
72H 30/0000Z 38.5N 75.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 31/0000Z 45.0N 60.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 01/0000Z 52.0N 46.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
$$
Forecaster Pasch
There’s no structure higher than a fence between Lake Charles and the Gulf!
I have been listening to WWL, 870 AM from New Orleans. I’m sure it can be streamed, too. They are covering the hurricane. It just made landfall. You may be able to receive WWL if you are within 1000 miles of New Orleans.
That explains the overnight 20 cent jump in gas prices, here.
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