The IAF/Mossad was my first guess as well.
However.
No reaction from the Mullahs, who under any other circumstances would have already had two or three Million-Man-screamers down Main St Tehran waving #DeathToSomebody signs.
Must be the Mullahs don't know whodoneit...or they do know and are just prayin' for time to get themselves/their plunder out of Dodge before the strikes get any closer.
I think this is pretty straight forward given the timeline.
US ship, explosions, fire.
Official cause? TBD. Poker-face from Navy Command.
Iranian ships, explosions, fire.
Official cause? TBD. Poker-face from mullahs.
Whipping the crowds into a frenzy these days is fraught with danger for the Mullahs.