So they're figuring something out...
Posted on 07/03/2020 1:59:34 PM PDT by BenLurkin
Early reports out of Wuhan, China, and Italy cemented the impression that the vast majority of patients who required the breathing devices ultimately succumbed to the disease caused by the novel coronavirus.
But as the pandemic has continued, U.S. hospitals are reporting much lower mortality rates, results on par with death rates for patients with similar severe lung problems caused by other diseases.
In a May 26 study in the journal Critical Care Medicine, Martin and a group of colleagues found that 35.7 percent of covid-19 patients who required ventilators died — a significant percentage but much lower than early reports that put the figure in the upper 80 percent range.
Use of drugs such as remdesivir, which shortens the recovery time for some of the sickest patients, and the steroid dexamethasone have helped as well.
(Excerpt) Read more at washingtonpost.com ...
There reason is because at first we abandoned all that we knew in panic and did a lot of things against our training. As things have settled down, we now understand this ARDS is like every other ARDS and when we treat it accordingly — amazingly we see the same mortality.
Any correlation to the possibility that COVID-19 is weakening as most viruses do over time?
Yeah, because everyone gets remdesivir and not HCQ, right?
Remdesivir has saved almost no one, while HCQ has, and WaPo won’t mention this truth.
Thats simply not true. Remdesivir is OK with decahedron in advanced critical illness. HCQ is good in early disease the studies are coalescing around this fact.
Probably the virus is attenuating, but in critical care we are returning to the basics. As I have said from the beginning, this ARDS is no different than any other ARDS and is treated the same way with the same results. Its really not rocket science.
Because hospitals get paid more there are more ventilators being used than have to be. SO more people are surviving them. They should not be used. They don’t help. In fact they hurt.
Younger, healthier patients, better therapies, better protocols. Let’s move on from this stupidity and accept we just need to power through a “pandemic” with a 0.25% fatality rate.
I might postulate as the virus moves into younger populations they survive it and the treatments better. Cause they’re younger.
Society of Critical Care Medicine: journal of Critical Care Medicine
June, 2020
The fatality rate of CoVID patients on ventilator is 35% which is consistent with the fatality rate of ARDS related to other etiologies
Please stop spreading fake news that ventilators do not help, the help 65% of the patients with terrible disease. You are spreading left wing propaganda. It is repulsive.
Ventilators save lives every day.
Hopefully this is good news for Ben Carson, who appears to be have been hospitalized with COVID-19 symptoms.
I would still opt for anti malarial drugs over intubation.
Ben Carson? You mean Herman Cain?
0.26% infection fatality rate was the CDC’s lower bound estimate a month ago. Johns Hopkins stated the likely IFR was 0.5%-1%. It’s possible that’s dropped some as treatments have improved, but I haven’t heard any updates on a new estimated IFR.
If we were to “power through” at those numbers, given the R0 of this illness as it stands, we would lose a lot of people. With the R0 of SARS-CoV-2, a conservative estimate of herd immunity would be 60-70% (it may be a little higher). Current US population is 330 million, so 60-70% of that is 198 million - 231 million who would eventually get infected.
At the CDC lower bound of 0.26% IFR, that’s 515,000 - 600,000 deaths.
At Johns Hopkin’s lower likely estimate of 0.5%, that’s 990,000 - 1,155,000 deaths.
At Johns Hopkin’s upper likely estimate of 1%, that’s 1,980,000 - 2,310,000 deaths.
Still want to just “power through” this? Or can we agree it’s better to slow it as best we can (without shutting down businesses) and finish up work on vaccines (multiple vaccines in or beginning phase 3 trials already)? What do you think President Trump’s chances of reelection are if there are a million dead bodies from COVID-19?
This is just simple math given the numbers provided to us. This is why President Trump is taking this all very seriously and providing leadership up front and behind the scenes to protect Americans.
Or perhaps the models are simply wrong
Use of drugs such as remdesivir,
aka RDU or Provasic.
The Fauc switched the samples!
So they're figuring something out...
Well I think it is becoming more retrospective than prospective.
“Still want to just “power through” this? Or can we agree it’s better to slow it as best we can (without shutting down businesses) and finish up work on vaccines (multiple vaccines in or beginning phase 3 trials already)?”
“Power through” implies protect the vulnerable (ie, elderly with comorbidities), allow the younger (<60 yo) to work with sensible precautions, and then the fatality rate falls to less than 0.1%. The fatality totals then fall much lower. Shutdowns make no sense as they create as much or more fatalities.
Further, are you certain the vaccine(s) will work well? I’m not.
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