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You always seem reasonable even in our disagreement. While I have seat and the google screen shift can we agree to the following:

1. This is most a second wave. If there is an increase in true cases then it is because the curve was flattened. You know as well as I do that a flattened curve does. It reduce the area under the curve which would be the total number of cases. Rather it prevents over running resources.

2. I am in a state where there is a spike. It has been going on for fully six days. I worked in one of the biggest icus in the region the last five days. There have been no hospitalizations. There have also been no icu admissions. This means either there is viral attenuation and it is not as severe OR it is finally running through the health population which would have happened any confirming this is a mild and self limited disease. If the latter then we are gaining steam toward here immunity. NYC probably has herd immunity at this time

3. Nationwide there is a continued steep decline in deaths that me it look like it is attenuating. It appears that either way the crises is over

I genuinely believe sir, the case numbers as a result of our obsessive and multiple testing of the same person. I personally tested the same person five times this week because of the requirement of two negatives before transfer to a different level of care. Mind you both patients are awake not vented and doing crossword puzzles with possibly late positives due to inactive viral debris. But these went into the numbers yesterday. Combine with that every person who wants a rest can get one irrespective of physician orders or advice and we are probably painting the picture of truly how minor of a disease this is Becuase testing is through the roof, positives hover between 5-7 % and hospital utilization is way down

4. I continue to hold that before this was a major news story in November, December, January, and early February I treated an abnormal amount of ARDS that was influenza negative to the point that many of us were baffled at why people were so sick with no explanation. At that time the ICUs were also very full. I continue to believe that our peak was actually mid February.

Anyway you seem erudite and reasonable in approach and I always appreciate hearing the opposite view.

Have a pleasant Saturday.

4. “I continue to hold that before this was a major news story in November, December, January, and early February I treated an abnormal amount of ARDS that was influenza negative to the point that many of us were baffled at why people were so sick with no explanation. At that time the ICUs were also very full. I continue to believe that our peak was actually mid February.”

Finally, a Dr. who shares our “anecdotal” evidence from those mo’s. I live in Central Alabama and many in this area came down with “something”. Me included. Personally, my chest hurt so bad I thought, Hell, I’ve killed myself smoking. Lasted just a few days. Maybe kinda tired and weak a few days before that. I wasn’t tested. But many were and tested negative for flu. As a matter of fact I know no one who tested positive for flu but many who were sick.

Thanks for the great post. Not much we disagree on, if anything and the only reason I post here is to ensure that China receives condemnation concerning this new virus, a virus we’re still learning about. This isn’t influenza, and the new spikes we’re seeing in scattered states are probably best called spikes and not a second wave. My .gifs aren’t so much my beliefs, but rather to prod the conspiratorial set that has joined the thread of late. It’s probably best I let that go, given the gravity of national events.

Again, thanks for the civility & intelligence. In the future I’ll limit my contributions in a more constructive way.

Peace.

Thank you for continuing to share your time to tell us of your actual experiences.

My wife and I have been paid and volunteered for work we have done over the years at the now shut down Life Care Center in Kirkland Washington; it has now been maligned to the point that it will probably never reopen. But it was one of the very best facilities in the region. It offered a higher level of care than any other care facility in Kirkland. It had many seriously ill people on feeding tubes and ventilators which was why it was so vulnerable to this virus.

Truth and proportion are the first things to go out the window whenever politics and politicians manage to interject themselves into any crisis. And a panicked public typically believes just about anything they are told if it is repeated often enough by a complacent media.

But people such as yourself who take the time to recount their real life experiences and observation often manage to somehow keep those who will listen informed and counteract all the nonsense. So thank you and God Bless you.