Posted on 06/14/2020 10:17:22 AM PDT by DUMBGRUNT
Consider the octopus arms in my analogy to be different functionality segments and sub-systems in a vehicle. ... industry has grown up and real new innovation does not happen anymore, each of these sub-systems has been outsourced to suppliers who offer it better, faster, and with lower costs. 90% of all Volkswagen software today is outsourced. A true win-win situation. Welcome to the world of low vertical integration and low pace of innovation.
...all systems are working just in their own little box and do not communicate with a central computer or, to use my analogy again, the central brain of our octopus.
...undisturbed, until Tesla released its first BEV. Tesla was the first company to release a vehicle custom designed with high vertical integration around a central computer managing all core and side functionality. You cannot see that from the outside, and that’s why people do still not understand why a Tesla is so different. They do typically learn it in the moment they press the accelerator.
10 years later, the largest and best R&D department in the auto industry has revealed vehicles that are nowhere near the 2012 Tesla Model S.
...reasoning for that decision was simple: revenue and profits.
...“Even today, hardly a line of software code comes from us.”...
...They will not even understand the problem if a software engineer tries to explain it to them...
Run a job assessment with all top managers at VW, Audi, Porsche, BMW, and Daimler tomorrow and ask them to code a small game or a simple but working virus. If they are not able to do so, fire them immediately, because they are not fit for the job. How many will be left?
...With 12 years of age in 1984, Elon Musk programmed BlaStar...
(Excerpt) Read more at cleantechnica.com ...
I don’t get your gay angle.
“As a whole, battery vehicles are pretty horrible on efficiency from source energy. Gas is better.”
Then why is the $/mile fuel cost less for electric cars?
“Then there is the fact that there are not enough rare earth metals to build the batteries, “
Source please.
“or electrical infrastructure to charge them (that takes a large 3 phase transformer for starters).”
The first gas station was in. 1905. It took three years before the second was built.
“As in child labor for a portion of it.”
Fake news propagated by the environmentalists.
We had relatives all over the country. Dad had met Mom at the University of Idaho and we had grandparents and aunts and uncles in ID; more relatives near Gary, Indiana; Chicago; Albuquerque; and Fort Worth. Every two years Dad would buy a new car and for summer vacation we’d drive a huge loop from upstate New York all around the country visiting everybody. Those were fun trips, even cramped in the back seat with two sisters and no air conditioning.
To please note...I refused the advice and continued on with my original plan.
= = =
I tried that.
We set the destination as our Motel for the night.
On the way we took side trips and alternate routes. The GPS girl kept saying ‘recalculating’, and ‘make a U-turn’.
I ignored all these commands, and tooled along happily until the GPS ran me off the end of a pier.
So I’m not a fan of the Tesla Model 3 where *everything* is done via an in-dash tablet. You have to look at it for simple things, like speed(!).
Honda went back to having a turn nob for audio volume - based on customer feedback, it’s just easier. While Tesla is trying to innovate there’s just certain things that you shouldn’t try to improve upon.
I’m an automotive software architect however. Any modern vehicle has multiple types of computer networks. CAN-FD, LIN, MOST, FlexRay, and now Ethernet is emerging - and that is only INSIDE the vehicle. Next we have communication to the outside, like V2X, 4G/5G, cloud services, high-def maps, etc... The amount of compute power going into them is exponential year over year.
Over the next decade I hope we can use such technology to reduce the deaths on the road. Cars that keep you in your lane, in any condition, that also can see in the dark (infra-red/radar) with no headlights, avoiding people or large animals - is a good thing imo. I really don’t care about fully automated driving, just make it so I can’t hit stuff.
It isn’t going to stop...some may not like it but I also like to DRIVE and want user options to turn things on/off at my discretion. Consider though that once things are computer controlled you can update the software over-the-air and improve the capability of the car over time. Tesla did this with updates to their anti-lock brake system, a software update improved the stopping distance.
As the article points out, the problem the industry is having is handling it all. The integration of today’s disparate systems can make it smarter, cheaper, lighter, etc.. A given car has thousands of vendors. Just make sure you don’t ask about the chain of trust across vendors regarding software and cyber-security!
Then why is the $/mile fuel cost less for electric cars?Do they factor in the value of the electricity drained from the grid?
If not, aren't they overlooking a significant cost?
It isn't.
Much of the perceived savings is merely cost-shifting, along with a complete failure to add up all the costs. It's still cheaper to fill your gas tank and drive 450 miles than to charge up your car battery and drive that same distance. People don't look at their electric bills. People using public charging stations do not even pay the electric bills.
It is still cheaper to transport 10,000 joules of energy in the form of natural gas or liquid hydrocarbon than by means of electric lines. And the hydrocarbon form is easy to store. Generated electric power cannot be stored very long or in large quantities and losses in transmission lines are considerable. Battery storage (elector-chemical in nature) is already pushing known physical limits. Perhaps there are some new discoveries to be made. That won't be cheap.
“Then there is the fact that there are not enough rare earth metals to build the batteries, or electrical infrastructure to charge them (that takes a large 3 phase transformer for starters).”
Yes, things move fast where there is money to be made.
Tesla improves on its ‘million-mile battery’ with less cobalt and higher energy density:
https://electrek.co/2020/05/05/tesla-million-mile-battery-less-cobalt-higher-energy-density/#:~:text=Tesla%20has%20made%20even%20more,and%20even%20more%20energy%20density.&text=They%20were%20able%20to%20show,made%20with%20the%20novel%20cathode.
And the Euros have one with near-zero cobalt...
“that takes a large 3 phase transformer for starters”
Yes, the monster supercharger station needs a three-phase power supply.
But most charging will be done at home.
Why stop when you can simply plug it in at home overnight?
I have posted in the past about grid loading with EVs, you may have missed it.
Simply stated.
Typical day time power use is HALF of peak daytime demand.
Nighttime demand is half of the daytime. NB: Lower nighttime rates.
Also the diversity factor.
Most charging would be done at night with lower rates.
Yes, you could chart it out for many years and show some problems... But with the move to LED lights, better insulation, more efficient transformers...
And all the shutdown gas stations not using power.
Point taken. The first SatNavs were separate devices from the car, then they were integrated, and now perhaps the trend will go back to separate units via apps, at least for some users. But my 5-year-old phone probably won't run these apps...and I won't be bullied into buying a new phone every year to keep up with apps.
“...But my 5-year-old phone probably won’t run these apps...”
Apple Maps also work well especially if I’m navigating around an unfamiliar city.
On newer cars, the phone display uses the car display, on older ones I mount the phone on the dash and turn the volume up.
HTH
” It’s still cheaper to fill your gas tank and drive 450 miles than to charge up your car battery and drive that same distance. “
LOL! That is so ridiculous I won’t even ask for your source!
“It is still cheaper to transport 10,000 joules of energy in the form of natural gas or liquid hydrocarbon than by means of electric lines. And the hydrocarbon form is easy to store. Generated electric power cannot be stored very long or in large quantities and losses in transmission lines are considerable. Battery storage (elector-chemical in nature) is already pushing known physical limits. Perhaps there are some new discoveries to be made. That won’t be cheap. “
All wrong.
Ouch! ;) Thing is, though, 99.9% of my driving consists of keeping my eyes on the road/idiot drivers around me, operating the steering, clutch, gear shift, and brakes. Not that that is mentally taxing, it's mostly "muscle memory" after so many years of driving. The old going from point A to point B routine...
Secondary controls I prefer to have accessible as simply as possible, and mechanically tactile beats a touch screen by that metric.
There just are not that many secondary controls I *really* need to play with while driving. My current car is already over the top with, for example, an idiotic climate control system that lets you adjust temperature in 0.5° C increments. What was the last time anyone driving a car thought, oh, 22.5° C feels a bit too warm, better change it 22.0° C? AND there are separate controls for the driver and passenger seats. As if that does crap all in an enclosed space of a few dozen cubic feet...
For some things, simpler *is* better. Especially for those of us with lesser mental abilities. :)
What are you referring to significant costs?
“Consider though that once things are computer controlled you can update the software over-the-air and improve the capability of the car over time. “
I upgraded mine from 720 to 750 hp.
It’s still cheaper to fill your gas tank and drive 450 miles than to charge up your car battery and drive that same distance.
Could you, as they say, show your work?
“No More Stopping For Gas
First, the biggest savings: no more expensive gas. With 100 miles using 34kWh (about 100 MPG) and electricity costing an average of $0.12/kWh, the yearly cost to drive a Tesla Model S 85D 15,000 miles is $612. Compare that to Toyota (TM) Camry’s 30 MPG and an average cost of gas of $2.40 per gallon. At 15,000 miles per year, the Camry will cost $1,200 – almost double what the Tesla Model S 85D costs. What’s more, the Model S 85D will likely cost less than $1,000 for a long time whereas oil prices change daily and could return to $4+ at any time in the future.”
https://www.investopedia.com/articles/active-trading/041515/economics-owning-tesla-car.asp#:~:text=No%20More%20Stopping%20For%20Gas,85D%2015%2C000%20miles%20is%20%24612.
“It is still cheaper to transport 10,000 joules of energy in the form of natural gas or liquid hydrocarbon than by means of electric lines. “
A quick SWAG estimate, most of the energy is lost as heat in the conversion to mechanical energy.
And the cost of electricity is is all over the map, depending on the plan, time of day and location.
And if you want to pick nits, the TCO on the EVs is much lower.
” AND there are separate controls for the driver and passenger seats. As if that does crap all in an enclosed space of a few dozen cubic feet...”
It works good enough to keep my wife happy. And no more cries from the rear seat to turn up the heat.
Glad I read your posts before responding in detail to him.
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